Russia: Other Points of View

MEDVEDEV’s CORRUPTION FIGHT PICKS UP STEAM IN 2011

COMMENTARY

By Gordon Hahn

Despite claims that nothing is changing in Russia and, more specifically, that Russian president Dmitry Medvedev’s anti-corruption drive is going nowhere, the fact is that the campaign is picking up steam and has a chance of making a real dent in Russia’s massive, endemic corruption.  Let’s begin with the least impressive but by no means insignificant of the recent steps.  In his May press conference at Skolkovo Medvedev called for a relaxation of the technical inspection of automobiles during the registration process; something that would reduce GIBDD presonnel’s opportunities for demanding bribes.  By the end of the month, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had prepared a government resolution waiving the requirement for new automobiles to be inspected upon their initial registration or during their first year on the road (Aleksandra Smarina, “Voyazh Medvedeva na ammita utonul v potoke informatsi o Putine,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, 27 May 2011).  This deprives the auto inspection department of a key opportunity for soliciting bribes; another step in Medvedev’s anti-corruption drive.

More importantly, the anti-corruption fight is generating a purge of high-ranking officials across the board, from the MVD, undergoing its own internal reforms, to the prosecutor’s office to the military-industrial complex to the military.  Thousands of MVD personnel are going through an attestation or re-certification for corruption and incompetency, leading to the removal from office of numerous high-ranking MVD generals.  In January Deputy Chief of the Moscow MVD’s Main Administration Vladimir Chugunov was fired (“Medvedev uvolil nachal’nika kadrovogo upravleniya GUVD Moskvy,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, 26 January 2011).  The terrorist suicide bombing at Domodedovo Airport allowed Medvedev to dismiss from office four top MVD officials, including Maj. Gen. Andrei Alexeyev, head of the transport police for much of western Russia, including Moscow, the chief of the transport police division at Domodedovo Airport and two other MVD officers (Jim Heintz, “Russian president fires police chief after bombing,” Associated Press , 26 January 11).

RUSSIA’S MVD REFORM: THE NEW LAW ‘ON THE POLICE’

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

In January of 2010 ROPV readers were informed of the scale and scope of President Dmitrii Medvedev’s plans for overhauling the massively corrupt Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) (see Gordon M. Hahn, “Medvedev’s Thaw Hits at Russia’s Lack of Rule of Law,” Russia Other Points of View: Russia Media Watch, 12 January 2010). 

The first stage of that process is now well underway.  Russia’s new law “On the Police,” the first step of the MVD reform, was signed by President Medvedev earlier this month and comes into force on March 1st.  Other stages of the reform will include the reform of the police training and education system which also includes training on human rights.  There will be a complete ‘attestation’ or ‘recertification’ of all MVD personnel with the goal to reduce the most corrupt and incompetent MVD policeman and officials; a procedure codified in this law as well (Article 54.3-5).  Also, President Medvedev is to issue a “Decree on Issues Concerning the Assessment of the Work of Russia's Interior Ministry Agencies,” which will apparently be a performance review of departments and other aspects of the MVD system.  Below we assess the new law in terms of its value as the new fundamental law governing the MVD, and as an indicator of progress in the overall reform process begun by President Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. 

RUSSIA 2010: SUMMING UP THE YEAR FOR THE THAW AND THE TANDEM

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn 

Again, for the third year in a row Russia saw modest progress in the continuing thaw under the ruling tandem of President Dmitrii Medvedev-Premier Vladimir Putin.  

Some of year 2010’s gains in domestic policy include:

• the return to allowing opposition demonstrations (even in the heart of Moscow);
• another round of toughening anti-corruption legislation;
• adoption of a new law ensuring multi-party representation at the level of municipal government;
• adoption of a new law requiring the release of terminally ill suspects from custody;
• adoption of a new law that will make the Federation Council a body of elected representatives from regional or municipal legislatures;
• the subordination of the siloviki (MVD, FSB, and prosecutors) to regional governors;
• considerably more open and broader discussion in state media;
• approval of a major economic de-nationalization (privatization) process to begin year 2011;
• and the beginning of another de-Stalinization campaign of sorts in education and culture reminiscent of Mikhail Gorbachev’s use of a similar campaign to push his own liberalization program ‘perestroika’ in the late 1980s. 

Perhaps the most important of these policy changes – permitting opposition rallies in central Moscow – held forth despite the ultra-nationalist riots on Moscow’s Manezh Square and in other Russian cities on December 11^th and the fact that the federal election cycle is approaching.  Days after those riots, Russian liberals, public figures, and others, including Kirov Governor Nikita Belykh, gathered in the largest demonstration since the thaw began nearly three years ago and the new policy of routinely permitting rather than refusing opposition demonstrations began this past summer. 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

NATO-Russia. Lots of things are rumoured: see this in the Independent for example. On a personal note I feel a lot of schadenfreude here. When I was working for the government, I wrote many briefing notes saying that NATO should listen to what Moscow was saying and take it seriously; not necessarily agree, but seriously think about it. But no, NATO light-heartedly (not my expression but George Kennan’s) went ahead and expanded here, there and everywhere, broke its promises, enjoyed its adventures, all under the complacent assumption  that Russia was negligible and its objections could be dismissed as mere self-interest, or spun as threats. No more. NATO has discovered that it really needs Russia in Afghanistan.  But, NATO has to learn that words have meanings: the Secretary General cannot say, one week, that Georgia will be a member of NATO one day, and on another that it wants to have a “true strategic partnership” with Russia. Georgia, under present management, is not acceptable to Moscow: there are reasons why this is so. NATO must make the, apparently difficult, attempt to understand those reasons. Nonetheless, the movement is encouraging: after all, NATO and Russia share the essential element of a military alliance – which is common enemies.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

By Patrick Armstrong

Russia Inc. The Finance Ministry announced that the budget deficit in 2009 was 2.3 trillion Rubles (US$78 billion – about 25% less than anticipated); GDP declined nearly 8%; the Reserve Fund holds about US$60 billion and the National Welfare Fund about US$95 billion. The IMF has raised its estimate for Russia’s GDP growth in 2010 to 4.25% from 4% and estimates that inflation will be 6%. Rumours of Russia’s economic death have been exaggerated: indeed these numbers look rather better than the IMF’s estimates for either the Euro Area or the USA. Medvedev’s calls for Russia to be treated as a major player in the world financial system don’t look so implausible today.

JIHAD AND COUNTER-JIHAD IN RUSSIA, MARCH 2010: TRIUMPH AND TRAGEDY

ISLAM, ISLAMISM AND POLITICS IN EURASIA REPORT, No.12, April 2010

by Gordon M. Hahn

Monterey Institute of International Studies

March 2010 saw both triumph and tragedy in Russia’s was against jihadi terrorism.  The first weeks of March saw Russian federal and local Caucasus security agencies score a series of major victories in the war against jihadism and the Caucasus Emirate (CE) mujahedin.  As reported in IIPER, No. 10, on March 3rd they killed the CE’s leading operative Said Abu Saad Buryatskii (Aleksandr Tikhomirov) along with seven other mujahedin.  Approximately another 10 were captured.  It was also reported that surrounded by FSB commandos Buryatskii bade farewell to his fellow mujahedin and spent his last minutes true to form: filming a farewell sermon on his cell phone.[1]  No such video has yet to appear on the CE sites.

To access the full report, please click here Download KAVKAZJIHAD_MonTREP_IIPER_12_7Apr2010_MarchEvents

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

People power. For years Russian big wheels have been whizzing down roads ignoring the rules confident that, should there be an accident, their connections will help the police to come to the correct conclusion. As it were. In Irkutsk in December, the daughter of the regional election committee chairwoman ploughed into two pedestrians. No charges were laid. A couple of weeks ago, the car of a LUKoil executive killed two people in a head-on collision; the victims were blamed. This was the last straw and a strong public opinion movement sprang up. Two observations (in addition to the obvious one) here. First, these protests are made possible by “new media” – YouTube, social networking, cellphone cameras. Second, an organisation of car owners called Freedom of Choice has mobilised in other cases and stands ready to go into action quickly. This is what is called civil society. For those who are immediately going to interpret this as signs of disquiet with Medvedev, the protesters are entirely in step with his pronouncements. But it is also a challenge for him to put his efforts where his mouth is; as a public appeal to him said: “If you take the case under your personal control and punish the person responsible for the crash, you will prove your commitment to the fight against corruption.” Yesterday Medvedev ordered an investigation. The Irkutsk campaign did force the police to re-consider.

IT'S TIME TO INVITE RUSSIA TO JOIN NATO

REPRINTS

 Der Spigel, March 8, 2010

Trans-Atlantic security needs have changed fundamentally in the last two decades. The East-West confrontation has ended, and Moscow now shares many interests with NATO. It is time for the alliance to open its doors to Russia, say German defense experts Volker Rühe, Klaus Naumann, Frank Elbe and Ulrich Weisser.

Former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt has noted with concern that many of today's politicians have too little knowledge of history. He could well have added that those same politicians are also frighteningly deficient when it comes to understanding strategic and security issues. In Germany, there is no significant discussion about the future of NATO, its self-image, its strategy for the future and the question of how Russia can be included. Berlin is not showing any opinion leadership, nor is it spurring international debate. This has been a disappointment for other members of the alliance, who are asking themselves whether the Germans are afraid of the debate or are simply no longer capable of contributing to it in a forward-looking way.

Europe's security, though, remains a constant task, and new challenges require different responses than in the past. The Euro-Atlantic region needs peace and stability at home, but it also needs protection against external threats. Ultimately, the emergence of a multi-polar world requires finding a way to offset the political, economic and strategic dynamics of the large Asian powers.

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EUROPEAN SECURITY

RERPINTS

by Dmitry Gorenburg 

I recently received a communication from a French expert on the Russian Navy that provides an interesting (and I think quite accurate) perspective on the Mistral sale.

"As you know, France is about to agree to sell four Mistral LHDs to Russia. Many see it as a signal to Russia that “this is ok” to invade all the little neighbors. Personally, I think that it would have been more damaging to the East-West relations to turn down the Russian approach. Built to commercial standards, the Mistral are more like ferries painted in gray and they don’t carry very sensitive technologies.

Many in Russia now consider that the US have taken over from Britain the traditional antagonism against them that led to the Crimean War and to the Great Game. They have sort of accepted this antagonism that has nothing to do with Communism. In this context, it would be interesting to resurrect the fact that during the Crimean and the Civil wars, Russia was a strategic partner of the US against Britain.

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Mistral panic now joined by outright misrepresentation

REPRINTS

by Dmitry Gorenburg 

Ariel Cohen’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal about the Mistral sale adds nothing to the previous neo-con screeds on this topic. It’s basically a mish-mash of every bit of anti-Russian fear-mongering one can squeeze into 800 words. Nothing surprising and wouldn’t have been worth commenting on except for one thing. Cohen states that Russia’s new military doctrine “lowers the threshold for pre-emptive nuclear strikes.” This is actually just a false statement. A sentence by sentence comparison of the text with the 2000 military doctrine shows that the threshold was actually raised slightly in the new edition, as I noted in a previous post. I have no problem with differences of opinion on the nature and extent of the threat posed by Russia to the rest of the world. But let’s stick to the facts and avoid outright misrepresentation of what’s in published documents. 

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