Russia: Other Points of View

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Candidates. The rules say that nominees of parties in the Duma are easily registered. So Putin (United Russia), Mironov (Just Russia), Zhirinovsky (LDPR) and Zyuganov (KPRF) were all registered early. Independents must produce two million signatures (a process that requires money and organisation). Mikhail Prokhorov (independent), who has lots of the first, passed and was officially registered The CEC rejected Yavlinskiy (Yabloko) saying that a second check of 400,000 signatures turned up 23% invalid. Yavlinskiy says he will appeal. This would mean that Yabloko members could not be elections observers but Putin and Prokhorov have said they will give them mandates to do so. The signature collection process is rife with fraud and easily-discovered technicalities.

Polls. A number of opinion polls show that Putin&Co have recovered their position and make it likely that he will win it on the first ballot. Number two is Zyuganov and number three is Zhirinovskiy. And thus it has ever been. “Liberals” are at the margin of error. Prokhorov, who has said that he intends to be the consolidated anti-Putin candidate, has a distance to go from his current rating of 3-4% to get enough to force a run-off. Mironov maybe (maybe) could get himself up to Zhirinovskiy’s level. Another VTsIOM poll puts Putin and Medvedev as the best leaders of the last century (Brezhnev and Nikolay II third and fourth, Yeltsin and Gorbachev last).

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Putin platform. An article in Izvestiya lays out the outlines of Putin’s election platform. And perhaps we have a clue as to why he thinks he must return as President. It’s one of the most concise statements of his desire for gradual reform he has ever given us. “A recurring problem in Russian history has been the elites’ desire to achieve sudden change, a revolution rather than sustained development. Meanwhile, both Russian and global experience demonstrates how harmful these sudden historical jolts can be… This is balanced by a different trend, a diametrically opposed challenge – in the form of a certain inclination to inertia, dependency, the elites’ uncompetitiveness and high levels of corruption.” Perhaps he feels that only he has the political muscle to steer between these twin shoals. He reiterated the long list of achievements since 2000 when many “foresaw one future for Russia: bankruptcy and breakup.” In short, vote for me, you know what I’m doing, you’ve seen what I’ve done. He promises more such pieces. I was also interested to see what I believe to be his first public reference to Khattab – a figure not as well known in the West as he should be.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Medvedev speech. He gave his annual speech to parliament last week. As is customary he started with achievements. Quite a list in fact: improvements in the economy overall, in the demographic situation, poverty reduction, military improvement. All true enough, albeit presented as positively as possible. But, in the present situation, his proposals for political reform are the most interesting. And, given the continuing existence of The Team, we may assume that these have Putin’s approval and will become law. The principal ones – and, he said, more will be coming – are the return to direct election of regional heads, the creation of a proportional voting system for districts (sounds like a return to the previous system of half individual representative and half party vote) and the reduction of the numbers of signatures required to register a party or presidential candidate. Instructions were given to the government and a bill on the last was sent to the Duma. The condition for candidates and parties to produce millions of signatures was inherently bogus and brittle. Specialists in collecting or producing the signatures appeared: the results were suspect and the authorities could always find enough fraudulent signatures to disqualify whom they wanted. So a reduction in the number required will be an improvement but better still would be to allow all registered parties to nominate a presidential candidate. Will the easier registration requirements apply in the presidential election? Not clear although one of his advisors is quoted as saying they will. If so, there could be a multitude of candidates competing for the “liberal” vote. This will have the benefit of demonstrating to Western observers infatuated with the parade of “liberals” that few of them have either support or programs.

Other changes. Putin has ordered web cameras be established at all polling stations immediately and transparent ballot boxes will be bought and provided.

THERE THE WASHINGTON POST GOES AGAIN …

ARTICLE CRITIQUE

by Gordon M. Hahn

In a confused and rambling article on Russian justice, peppered with digs at the right suitable for Occupy Wall Street, the Washington Post and its writer Kathy Lally produced another article meant to mislead readers into thinking the very worst about Russia. 

The intent of the article was to impress upon readers the alleged fact that none of Russian President Dmitrii Medvedev’s reforms  (previously ignored by the WP) are working.

This past year Medvedev issued instructions and signed into law measures that removed prison terms from the list of punishments that could be meted out by Russian courts for many economic crimes.  The article does its best to give the impression that it is interested in the facts.  Referring to figures showing that only some 35 percent (specifically, 146,490 of 404,333) of those convicted for economic crimes received prison sentences in 2011, this is how that data is framed:

“Detainees are held in intolerable conditions. The water is usually undrinkable ­ the fortunate use electric coils brought by relatives to boil it. Cells are damp and dark. Medical care is routinely denied. Many suffer, and for no reason.

Last year, according to court records, 404,333 people were convicted of economic crimes, but only 146,490 got prison terms. The rest paid fines or got suspended sentences. At the same time, 59 people died in Moscow's pretrial prisons, a half-dozen more than the year before. "We can say one thing for sure," said Valery Borshchev, the head of a public commission that monitors prison conditions in Moscow. "The president's initiatives are not working.”

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY REPORT

by Patrick Armstrong

Eurasian Union. Putin has spoken of his desire to form a “Eurasian Union” and this has attracted some attention. This is hardly the first time, though, that he has spoken of such a thing. We already have the Russia-Belarus union, which doesn’t seem to amount to much; the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which is still in its infancy; the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation of Russia, four Central Asian countries and China and several partial members which is largely security-based. And, of course, the CIS which is as yet undead.  None of these is especially vibrant. Moscow and Astana have been the prime movers of most of them and they are founded on the remaining common economic/trade and security concerns of the countries involved. Perhaps the Customs Union will be expanded farther; that will depend on how successful it proves to be. There is, therefore, nothing especially new about Putin’s desires. However some things have changed in the 10 to 15 years that these ideas have been floated. The most significant change is that the attraction of the West/European “model” has waned somewhat. The dreams of acceptance, integration and equality that were alive in the 1990s have been replaced with a rather drearier reality. And the reality – unexpected 15 years ago – that Russia is doing best.

IS THE TANDEM RUNNING OUT OF TIME? RUSSIA - TOWARDS ANOTHER REVOLUTIONARY MOMENT?

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

Is Russia’s ruling tandem and its strategy of gradual reforms short on time?  Is Russia inching towards another revolutionary moment?  Could be.  Revolutions typically begin as reforms and develop over long periods of time, in stages and waves.  For example, Russia’s early 20^th century revolution began in the 1860s and went through several stages before being hijacked by the Bolshevik coup in 1917.  Even after that a four-year long civil war was needed to settle the issue.  As in the late Soviet period that ended with Boris Yeltsin’s revolution from above, the first Russian revolution included several periods of limited reforms and two revolutionary crises:  one in 1905 and another a full 12 years later.

In the late 1980s Mikhail Gorbachev began radical reforms of the decayed totalitarian Soviet system.  Those reforms developed such that by 1991 they could have ended in revolution from below or a transition to democracy, but instead a peaceful revolution from below led by state bureaucrats took the lead in destroying what was left of the Soviet Party-state and constructing the new post-Soviet Russia. 

Russian President Boris Yeltsin demobilized civil society and failed to institutionalize democracy.  His successor Vladimir Putin sought to address the chaos by restoring elements of authoritarianism, emphasizing state development rather than civil society or democratic development.  As we have covered in some detail, since the onset of Dmitrii Medvedev’s presidency, a new stage of reforms has begun, reflected by a gradual thaw or liberalization of domestic and foreign policy: a gradual, more cautious Perestroika 2.0.  However, there are real limits to the thaw that risk another period of instability and regime transformation.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Election bet. I’ve put mine down: Medvedev will run, Putin will not, there may be a second Team candidate (ie one from United Russia and one from Just Russia).

Putin Q&A. Another session worth reading. He was in Magnitogorsk to open a new cold rolling complex  but, as usual, answered all the questions thrown at him with his customary frankness and mastery of detail. As I have noticed on several occasions lately, he seems to be in a reflective mood and is ready to speak about what he believes he accomplished (stability again: “Who is going to invest in a country that is always shaking like a leaf?”). Several times lately he has been looking back in detail but forward in generalities. Is this a (tiny, I agree) indication that he is contemplating retirement?

Legal activity.  Quite a lot since my last Sitrep. Contractor arrested for swindling the Navy (and, by the way, a rather easily detected swindle). Four people in the North Caucasus arrested as they were preparing a bomb attack on Moscow. Yet another RosAtom executive arrested on charges of embezzlement. Another traffic cop arrested in another “blue light” affair. Three police sentenced for abuse of office. Criminal investigation into a St Petersburg shipyard.  Charges laid in the Bulgaria sinking. Investigation into a “blue light” death re-opened. Extreme nationalist sentenced. Two charged in a laser blinding case (there have been a spate of these lately). A man arrested for a multiple murder. And, in the Magnitskiy case, charges have been laid and the investigation re-opened. That’s what I’ve noticed in three weeks – I wouldn’t say that nothing is being done about corruption and malfeasance.

MEDVEDEV’s TURNS TO LIBERALIZING THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

COMMENTARY

by Gordon Hahn

The liberalization being carried out by Russia’s ruling tandem and most closely associated with President Dmitrii Medvdev in Russian foreign and domestic political and economic policy continues.  Judicial, legal, police, penitentiary, anti-corruption and economic reforms continue to be pressed and gradually ratcheted up as well.  To be sure, there are limits to the reforms already undertaken, but just because some things remain the same does not mean nothing has changed.  Indeed, Medvedev is now taking on Russia’s ossified political system in the most serious way since his arrival to the presidency.

Medvedev’s previous practice of carrying out marginal political reforms is a thing of the past; he has crossed the threshold of more significant reforms.  Earlier, several marginal reforms made it easier for opposition parties to compete compared with the more tilted playing field crated during the president of Premier Vladimir Putin.  In April President Medvedev signed into law measures allowing political parties to field candidates in regional and municipal elections even if those parties have no offices of branches in those regions (Natalya Krainova, “Kremlin Eases Vote Rules for Opposition,” Moscow Times, 8 April 2011). 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Military. There may be more to last week’s retirements of three generals. One reporter suggests that their retirement has a connection with what he says are several cases of convicted officers being promoted. He has learned that the Presidential Administration has “frozen” their resignations and will be interviewing them to ascertain why “young, promising leaders are retiring from the army”. Report in English here. On the procurement problem – and the growing conviction that a lot of Russian-made weaponry is more expensive than it should be – a Deputy Defence Minister reports that overpricing is caused by an excessive number of subcontractors which, he said, can lead to sudden and unexplained price drops when the initial bid is challenged. It rather sounds as if this is a polite way of saying that many people are “wetting their beaks”.

“Against all”. Russian ballots used to have an entry “Against All” and “Against All” could win and occasionally did. In that case, new election with new candidates. The provision was abolished in 2006 but Sergey Mironov, the leader of Just Russia, has introduced a bill to the Duma to bring it back. An interesting provision that very few countries dare to have because it might lead to unflattering discoveries. I suspect that the real reason Mironov made the proposal was to distinguish his party from United Russia. Whether it passes or is voted down, he will achieve that aim.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Grain exports. When I was in Russia in the early 1990s I visited several farms. In my travels I don’t recall ever seeing a field that was being used for anything except grazing for a scrawny cow or two. I spoke to Russians and Westerners, more knowledgeable than I, who had seen farms; everyone agreed that the situation was, in a word, hopeless. At that time it was said that Russia imported half its food. Something has happened. Last year, with the bad summer, Russia halted grain exports and the world price went up. Exports have just been resumed (perhaps 15 million tonnes out of a total harvest expected to be about 85) and prices went down. Somehow the desperate situation of the 1990s has turned around and Russia is an important grain exporter for the first time since when? a century ago? In the 1990s, the idea of Russia becoming an major food exporter would have been utterly unimaginable. I am not aware of any coverage of this and I would love to see some. Private farming? A restructuring of the decayed remnants of state and collective farms? New land? What? Away from the everlasting barren speculation of neo-Kremlinology there are real stories to cover.