RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Election. Results here in Russian on the CEC site and in English at RIAN. Putin 63.6%, Zyuganov 17.18%, Prokhorov 7.98%, Zhirinovskiy 6.22% (fourth place for once!), Mironov 3.86%. Turnout 65.3%. Turnout in Moscow City and St Petersburg about 50%. Chechnya was a little more subdued this time: a mere 94.89% turnout with only 99.76% for Putin. Interesting from the point of view of the polls: Putin did better than FOM or VTsIOM predicted but on the low range of Levada’s 63-66%. Zyuganov did better than anyone predicted, beating the average estimate by 20%, and Zhirinovskiy did somewhat worse (but they share a sector of the electorate and their total was very close to the estimate); Prokhorov hit the average prediction but Mironov was significantly worse at only about 65% of the prediction. But, generally speaking not large variations from the predicted results and Putin’s lead over perennial runner-up Zyuganov of three and a half to one is hard to pretend was manufactured. (Which isn’t stopping people from trying with what can only be an intentional misuse of statistics).Turnout was below average but still respectable. I have the feeling that the Western connection of the protestors (and I repeat that the US Ambassador’s meeting with the opposition was a gift) induced some people to vote Putin who might not otherwise (à la Voter 2’s story). Prokhorov may have a future as the non-Communist anti-Putin (a Forbes survey rated him the second-most respected billionaire) (perhaps in the cabinet, Putin suggests). Mironov, however, may not have much of a political future.

Turnout. I find the low turnout in Moscow especially and in St Petersburg to a lesser degree very curious. I have three possible explanations (which could be combined in different proportions in different individuals). 1. When the moment came, they couldn’t actually bring themselves to vote for one of the others, so they stayed home. 2. Protesting is cool, voting is uncool. 3. The “new young people” have given up on politics, for now anyway, and will put their energies into something else. One would have thought, after all the excitement, that there would have been a bigger anti-Putin turnout. As it was Putin got less than 50% in Moscow City. I agree with Putin when he said the opposition “will become a real political force when they are able to come up with proposals on the future development of the country and prove that their proposals are desirable”. Being against Putin, but not bothering to vote, is not that. Which is not to say that something important isn’t in motion; Russian politics are far too top-down; they badly need an infusion of bottom-up.

Protests. The post election protest pulled only 10K or so (“only” – interesting writing that: last year that would have been a very large number). City Hall has authorised up to 50K on Saturday. I think the protest movement is over for now, or at least will be reduced to the usuals. 

Russian electoral reality. Anatoly Karlin has written the best single thing I have ever seen on electoral reality in Russia. I cannot recommend it too highly – everything is in it. Here it is; read it. Much better than the rubbish in the MSM.

Typing class. Reuters’ headline and story – which make no mention at all of opinion polls – “Vladimir Putin ‘elected Russian president’, opponents allege fraud” has been re-typed by thousands of outlets. AP’s "Riot police break up anti-Putin protest in Moscow" ditto; it’s only when you read down the account that you learn that the arrests came when some tried to turn it into a sit-in (not authorised in the permit) after several thousand had protested without interference by the police. But the program has been a success – millions of people now believe that Putin’s and United Russia’s victories were fraudulent.

The return. Putin met with editors of some Western news outlets and said – they obviously weren’t listening the first two times: “I will repeat for the third time (the translation is clearly not coming across very well): he and I represent the same political force; we arranged that the presidency would be contested by whoever enjoyed the better standing and had the greater chance of winning.” So that’s the official reason. He reiterated, as he and Medvedev have done many times before, that they are carrying out the same program.

Politkovskaya murder. Some interesting developments. The senior police officer, who appears to have been the sub-contractor for the murder is singing. According to Kommersant he believes that Berezovskiy and Zakayev “could have been” behind it and the supplier of the murder weapon has been identified

Comments

[Eugene Ivanov]

Patrick,

One small comment. The very last (and supposedly "the best") Levada forecast -- submitted to CEC on March 2 to take part in a "forecast competition" -- gave Putin 61.5%

http://www.levada.ru/05-03-2012/predvybornyi-prognoz-levada-tsentra-podannyi-v-tsik-2-marta-2012

[Alexander Mercouris]

Dear Patrick,

A fine overview as always. I am honestly embarrassed to say that I have nothing very much to add. The one thing I would say is that if there is convincing evidence linking Berezovsky and Zakayev to Politkovskaya's murder the implications could not be more serious. Berezovsky at least (I do not know about Zakayev) has been granted British citizenship something which was refused to (for example) Mohammed Al Fayed even though his business career hardly compares with Berezovsky's and even though as the proprietor of Harrods Al Fayed paid taxes and employed thousands of people in Britain which Berezovsky of course does not. No one has ever suggested that Al Fayed was a murderer whilst such allegations were already being made when Berezovsky was granted British citizenship. I should quickly add that the decision to refuse Al Fayed British citizenship long predates his son's relationship with Diana Princess of Wales. If there is convincing evidence linking Berezovsky to the murders of Politkovskaya and apparently Khlebnikov then especially given that Khlebnikov and possibly also Politkovskaya were US citizens the potential for embarrassment for the British government is huge.

[Alexander Mercouris]

I have just checked Wikipedia and it seems that Politkovskaya was a US citizen at the time of her death. This raises an interesting possibility that so far as I am aware no one has so far considered. This is that if there is convincing evidence that links Berezovsky to her murder then the US authorities could bring their own prosecution and could demand Berezovsky's extradition to the USA. If that were to happen (and I appreciate that this for the moment looks farfetched) then I do not see how given the terms of the US/UK extradition treaty the British authorities could refuse to extradite him. Bear in mind that the US has a highly evolved system of judicial review so that even if the US authorities were reluctant to bring a prosecution if the evidence were strong someone with an interest case might be able to bring a civil case to compel them to do so. The same is equally true if there is strong evidence linking Berezovsky to the murder of Paul Khlebnikov who was also a US citizen.

I am not of course saying that any of this is going to happen. All I am saying is that there is great potential for embarrassment for both the UK and it seems the US governments.

Lastly I would just add on checking Wikipedia I notice that the entry on Politkovskaya herself makes on a very brief reference to the latest developments in her case whilst the separate Wikipedia entry entitled "Assassination of Politkovskaya" omits them completely and stops at the point in 2009 when the Russian Supreme Court ordered a re trial of the case involving the less important individuals involved in the murder who had been acquitted in a mistrial.

[Patrick Armstrong]

BAB had the great advantage of having a "certified ex-KGB officer" testify that, if he weren't allowed into the UK, he would be whacked out.
The big problem is to move the meme away from "Putin kills journalists who disagree with him" to actually looking at reality. (PS there are a lot of "journalists" in Russia who disagree with Putin who live and thrive. Many of them at Moscow Times.)
But, hey!, it's Russia: write what you like!

[Patrick Armstrong]

Eugene
Didn't see that poll. But presumably done after the deadline.