MOSCOW'S MOMENT OF TRUTH ABOUT TEHERAN

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

Time is running out for the Kremlin in its up again down again relationship with the mullahs in Teheran.  Moscow has enjoyed fairly good relations with Iran, especially when it comes to trade.  However, the deteriorating relationship between Iran and the rest of the international community is putting the squeeze on Russia’s sometimes troubled, sometimes smooth, relations with the Iranian regime.

To be sure, some progress has been made during the Obama administration in getting Russia to join with the U.S. and other Western and concerned nations to contain the Iranian menace.  Moscow has agreed more than not, to join in voting at the U.N. in favor of sanctions against Teheranm, than for its refusal to come clean about its illegal nuclear weapons program.  Moscow has also cooperated with the sanctions regime.  Last year President Dmitrii Medvedev issued an order ceasing all weapons sales to Teheran, including blocking delivery of the S-300 air defense system contracted earlier.  It also long delayed loading fuel into Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant that went on line this year.

Teheran responded with hints it would act against Russian interests in the North Caucasus.  Iran's Ambassador to Moscow, Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi, threatened that it would not be prudent for Russia to distance itself from Tehran: “Today Iran is helping to prevent the spread of terrorism in the Caucasus region as well as smuggling drugs to Russia.”  The Russians noticed the implied threat.  The daily Nezavisimya gazeta noted: “Tehran is trying to blackmail Moscow.” The ambassador’s words “are not characteristic of diplomatic ethics,” a source in the Russian Foreign Ministry told the paper (Alexei Terekhov, “Tegeran pytaetsya zhantazhirovat’ Moskvu,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, 27 October 2010 and “Russia and Iran exchange criticism, but continue cooperation,” Russia Today, 27 October 2010, www.russiatoday.com). 

Moscow continues to assist Iran in developing a nuclear energy infrastructure that can be used to develop its nuclear weapons program.  It also maintains a more resistant position regarding sanctions, as does China, but the latter has fewer economic ties to, and enjoys greater geographic distance from Teheran.

Clearly, Iran’s international (and domestic) behavior does not warrant such close cooperation.  Its president and other Iranian leaders have threatened to destroy Israel.  Teheran supplies weapons and other forms of support to terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.  Teheran has assisted Islamists fighting U.S. and Western forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan and appears to be running a not so clandestine operation in Venezuela to expand its terrorist infrastructure to the Western hemisphere. 

Now, the Iranian leadership is implicated in an attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. in a terrorist attack in Washington, D.C. that would have killed and wounded perhaps hundreds of U.S. citizens.  Indeed, Moscow, so very aware of the jihadist threat, has been very cooperative in the war against jihadism and not just in establishing the Northern Distribution Route for supplying troops in Afghanistan, but also in intelligence-sharing and numerous other areas.

If Moscow is not convinced to distance itself further from Iran by the litany of Iranian crimes and terrorist activity crimes, then it should be persuaded by potential threats to its own national interests and cease its own energy and other cooperation with Iran.

There is no doubt that Iran poses a security threat to Russia and that the threat is likely to grow over time.  It is very likely that Moscow will be forced once the slow burning crisis between Iran and the West comes to a head, to side with the West.  If it does not prepare ahead of time, then it could caught with its guard down and take a hit from Iran.

It may already be too late.  The threat takes the form of Islamist terrorism, which is at present, an everyday Russian problem.  Scenarios abound in which Russia’s Caucasus Emirate (CE) mujahedin could be supported by Iran either to threaten Russia to continue cooperation or to punish it for turning away from Teheran.  One clear scenario would have Iran providing massive financial support to the CE.  Another would see Teheran providing materials for the building of a dirty bomb that the CE could deliver to Moscow or St. Petersburg in order to punish Moscow for or prevent it from cooperating fully with the West in isolating Teheran.

Some say that the Shiite mullahs of Iran would not deign to help Russia’s Sunni- and Sufi- oriented jihadists.  However, Teheran’s willingness to work with Mexican drug cartels to assassinate the Saudi amnbassador should suggest that this notion is a false one.  As ideological as Teheran may be, like other ideologically demagogoic regimes, it will not let theo-ideological technicalities stand in the way of its more immediate concerns and ultimate goals.  In the long run, for all Islamists, all secular regimes are the enemy and should be destroyed, it is just a question of priority or in what order each enemy should be confronted and cut down.  Moreover, there are Shiites in Russia’s North Caucasus and in Azerbaijan who could be enlisted to do Teheran’s dirty work.

Perhaps the best scenario for Moscow is one it would seem to abhor: the fall of the mullhas’ regime and the rise of a democratic or at least more rational Teheran.  While violating Russia’s sensibilities regarding color revolutions, such a revolution would likely produce a regime that is not theo-ideologically predisposed to assisting jihadists or developing nuclear weapons but is willing to continue nuclear energy and other trade cooperation with Moscow.

In lieu of this rosier scenario, time is running out for Moscow to decide.  Which side will it be on?  On the side of a civilized approach to international politics or the side of an ideologically-driven regime on the decline and looking to upend the international system in favor of an Islamist revolution.  The same Russian Foreign Ministry cited above noted a year ago: “Sometimes the (Russian) Foreign Ministry just lets the Iranians’ statements go in one ear and out another, so as not to worsen the situation.” 

Now is the time for Moscow to start paying full attention to Iran’s words and deeds.  It is unlikely that it will be able to sit on the sidelines when push comes to shove.

Comments

[Foppe]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the "terrorist attack" was fake. For more, see this post (and follow-up) by Glenn Greenwald.

[Foppe]

Links: http://www.salon.com/2011/10/12/the_very_scary_iranian_terror_plot/
http://www.salon.com/2011/10/13/the_la_times_notices_the_double_standard_on_iran/

[hoct]

Scaremongering about Iran that is about as sophisticated as the scaremongering about Russia that you regularly refute.

[scrubs]

USA ! You're the cradle of terrorism! Al-Qaeda - it is your creation. Iran compared to you - just a little kitten! And you - killer. Очнитесь! На ваших руках кровь миллионов людей! И вы смеете кого то обвинять в этом? Вы лжёте всему миру во всём! Под прикрытием демократии убиваете людей! Вас в мире просто ненавидят!

[Sublime Oblivion]

Gordon, I must admit I'm puzzled by your endorsement of the Iran plot theory as well. It screams FBI entrapment (if not Gulf of Tonkin) from every sentence.