Russia: Other Points of View

RUSSIA RESET SHOULD NOT BE A POLITICAL FOOTBALL IN US 2012 ELECTION

REPRINTS

www.america-russia.net

James Jatras, Edward Lozansky and Anthony Salvia

We the undersigned-Reagan Republicans, all-think President Obama deserves credit for the broad direction of his "reset" with Russia. Although not without faults in the implementation, we welcome the President's effort to move American policy away from the sterile and gratuitous hostility toward post-communist Russia and its legitimate national interests that characterized the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations.

Between December 2011 and November 2012, the United States and Russia will be holding legislative and presidential elections. In Russia, it is widely assumed that Vladimir Putin will return to the presidency, a position from which he voluntarily stepped down in 2008. Despite criticism directed against him both at home and abroad, it is indisputable that tens of millions of Russian citizens from all walks of life esteem him as a strong leader who has restored their country to international respect and domestic stability.

In the campaign for the GOP presidential nomination, the US-Russia 'reset' already has begun to emerge as an issue. Or, more precisely, efforts are underway to encourage various contenders in the hotly contested Republican race to seize upon the 'reset' so as to fault Mr. Obama's performance. Some of these efforts can be sourced to foreign influences-notably, lobbying efforts in Washington on behalf of Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili-attempting to skew American policy toward Russia to fit their own agendas, irrespective of the interests of the United States.

RESETTING PUTIN

REPRINTS

by Eugene Ivanov

http://rbth.ru/articles/2011/10/10/author/Eugene%20Ivanov

The American political establishment should not be naive about how the return of President Putin will affect U.S.-Russian relations.

What will Vladimir Putin's return to the presidency mean for U.S.-Russia relations? Source: AP
A consensus is emerging among Russia-watchers that Vladimir Putin’s return to the Russian presidency will have little impact on the country’s foreign policy and, in particular, on U.S.-Russia relations.  Andrew Kuchins, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., has eloquently summarized this sentiment:
 
“The possible election of Putin as the president of Russia will not signify a fundamental change in the direction of U.S.-Russia relations.  The main reason for this is the fact that no major decisions on foreign or domestic policy during the period of Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency have been made without implicit or explicit support from Mr. Putin.”

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Note from the author: 

NO MORE SITREPS UNTIL LATE NOVEMBER.
 
Dear Readers: today’s is the 611th of these since the first one in March 1997. I normally have no difficulty in filling the page but, of late, I find that that it is more and more difficult. This is, I believe, another indicator of the increasing stability and “normality” of Russia’s situation. In former times we had “the Eastern Question” or “the German problem” and so we have had “the Russian problem”. But, as the others faded away (over time and much pain) so will this.

I will consider, when I get back, whether I can continue the weekly schedule or switch to every two weeks.

Demographics. The Russian demographic problem – which, incidentally, has its roots in the Soviet days and is mirrored in most FSU countries (Latvia perhaps the worst) – was the consequence of problems at each end. Low birth-rates and high infant mortality combined with too many early (and largely preventable) deaths. But, contrary to the customary poorly-sourced pieces that the Western MSM is rife with, progress is being made. Anatoly Karlin has been posting on the subject for several years and is well worth reading. His latest argues that Russia’s population has actually increased and is today higher than it was in 2009. While the natural population increase is still negative – but less and less so every year – the increase has come from immigration. Improvements have been made at both ends of the problem but Karlin provides data showing that deaths by alcohol, suicide and homicide have seen great reductions. They are still rather higher than they should be but these are factors where comparatively easy resolutions can be found. In short, it appears, barring some new disaster, that the Russian demographic crisis is on the way to being solved; that the various government programs are having their effect and that increasing prosperity will continue to raise life expectancy and reduce infant mortality. Thus Russia’s “demographic crisis” is yesterday’s news and the improvements – with more expected – serve as another of the many reasons that Russians generally approve of the Putin team. It cannot be said too often that the reasons for the Team’s popularity, trust and support in Russia is not that opinion polls are fixed, or that the mass media is as it was in the Soviet days or that Russians are naturally subservient (all assumptions of the Russophobic tendency) but because Russians can see every day the effect of a governing team that, generally speaking, does what a government is hired to do.

THE MISSING CHAPTER

Dear reader, we respect different points of view on Russia, and Eric Kraus's voice certainly needs to be heard. His is an acerbic indictment of how mainstream media and political elites of the West handled the new Russia as it hobbled out from under Communism in the 1980s.  He was there, watching it all, and he minces no words in presenting his point of view. Your comments would be appreciated .

Sharon Tennison

The final version can be found by clicking on the following web-link:

http://www.truthandbeauty.ru/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/The-Missing-Chapter2.pdf

NEWSWEEK ON PUTIN'S 'RETURN': NEWS OR CYNICAL PROPAGANDA?

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

With Halloween around the corner, Matthew Owens and and Anna Nemtsova have masqueraded another one-sided piece of biased “analysis,” as news. 

The gist of “Back to the USSR” article is that Prime Minister and former president Vladimir Putin’s decision to run for president and relegate present president Dmitrii Medvedev to the post of premier will put an end to any chance for non-revolutionary regime change in Russia. 

Russians will soon man the barricades and storm the Kremlin and ‘Qaddafi’ Putin and Medvedev, despite the fact that all surveys show that the overwhelming majority of Russians assess their leadership favorably and would vote for either in presidential elections.  In the course of drawing this portrayal, the authors engage in strident judgements about a foreign culture that is highly uncharacteristic for the politically correct U.S. mainstream media, condemning Russians for being “backward, masochistic, and reactionary.”  Oddly, the Russians’ ostensible totalitarian nature does not seem to square with the author’s assessment that Russians are ready to overthrow the present regime in order to attain democracy.

RISING OIL RISK PREMIUM AND WTO PROSPECTS

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

by Chris Weafer

I'm living so far beyond my income that we may almost be said to be living apart

                                                                                                             E. E. Cummings

Asia’s markets have started the week by extending Friday’s gains on Wall Street. Commodity prices are also trading better as investors interpret events in Europe positively. One month Brent is above $110 p/bbl and copper is 3.2% higher. Gold last traded at $1645,9 p/oz and the euro is also up against the dollar at $1.389. All of which bodes very well for a positive start to the week’s trade on Moscow’s bourses and for strengthening of the ruble relative to the dollar.

There are currently three important events that, depending on how they play out, will have an important impact on how Russian equities and the ruble trade over the remainder of 2011. All three are external to Russia. These are a) the policy response in Europe and the US to the euro zone debt threat and the risk of a slowing in the US economy, b) Russia’s WTO entry process and, c) events in North Africa and the Mid East.

To access the full report, please click here  Download Russia_Week_Oct_24

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY REPORT

by Patrick Armstrong

The Program, Medvedev. On Saturday Medvedev laid out some of his program in an interview. He began by declaring that he and Putin were a team “That is especially true since we have very close political approaches, we are allies and in everyday life we are close friends”. His prevailing theme is: “our country really needs modern development and gradual but steady reforms.” Once again we see the caution that predominates in their attitude; understandably I believe. He is currently pushing the idea of what he calls “extended government”. I’m not quite sure what he means by that but make a guess from things he said. He referred several times to an incident one of his questioners brought up – the improvement of local tram service that had come about only after his direct intervention – and emphasised that that was a serious defect in the way government worked in Russia: “Everything gets done this way here, it seems. It doesn’t matter who is president; you just have to make your voice heard at the very top, and then things will start to move. But we need to change this kind of decision-making system”. When we add to that his repeated references to the importance of the New Media in enabling two-way communication between government and people (“[In Russia] historically the authorities have been far removed from the people”) I assume that his “extended government” idea involves much more feedback (another word he used a lot). But we will see if the idea is fleshed out. So, his message is that it’s the same Team with the same Program. But slow but steady is the word.

MOSCOW'S MOMENT OF TRUTH ABOUT TEHERAN

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

Time is running out for the Kremlin in its up again down again relationship with the mullahs in Teheran.  Moscow has enjoyed fairly good relations with Iran, especially when it comes to trade.  However, the deteriorating relationship between Iran and the rest of the international community is putting the squeeze on Russia’s sometimes troubled, sometimes smooth, relations with the Iranian regime.

To be sure, some progress has been made during the Obama administration in getting Russia to join with the U.S. and other Western and concerned nations to contain the Iranian menace.  Moscow has agreed more than not, to join in voting at the U.N. in favor of sanctions against Teheranm, than for its refusal to come clean about its illegal nuclear weapons program.  Moscow has also cooperated with the sanctions regime.  Last year President Dmitrii Medvedev issued an order ceasing all weapons sales to Teheran, including blocking delivery of the S-300 air defense system contracted earlier.  It also long delayed loading fuel into Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant that went on line this year.

HALCYON MARKET DAYS

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

by Chris Weafer

                                                              "It isn't so much that hard times are coming;                                                                         The change observed is mostly soft times going" 

                                                                                                            Groucho Marx

 After a disastrous 3rd Qtr for equities, commodities and developing economy currencies, the 4th Qtr has started with a great deal more hope. The S&P 500 is up 11% from the start of the month and the MSCI World and EM indices are 7.5% and 6.3% higher respectively. The RTS and MICEX gained 10.5% and 6% respectively last week alone. There is considerable optimism that this rally can run much further as European leaders show greater determination to tackle the debt crisis and US economic indicators and corporate earnings, albeit slowing, have not fallen off a cliff.

In particular, there was an audible sigh of relief in global markets last week as EU leaders reacted quickly to Slovakia's rejection of the bail-out fund and aggressively maintained momentum towards a new deal to both prevent a Greek default and to provide a protection mechanism for the region's banks. The political divisiveness that the issue has provoked is clear from the fact that the EU leaders summit, originally scheduled for today, has been postponed until next Sunday to allow more time to construct a comprehensive deal. 

This week investors will again remain very sensitive to newsflow from Europe, the US macro data and 3rd Qtr numbers from the big Wall Street banks. Over the next several weeks the key events will be;

• Chinese September macro report October 18
• EU Leaders summit on October 23rd
• US Fed FOMC meeting on November 1 & 2
• G20 Summit on November 3 & 4

To access the full report, click Download Russia Week Oct 17

LITVINENKO CASE AGAIN BREEDS JOURNALISTIC MALFEASANCE

ROPV CONTRIBUTORS

by William Dunkerley

There's never been a definitive determination that Alexander Litvinenko was murdered. That may sound counterintuitive to you if you've been reading popular news reports. But, recent word from the coroner's office in London has set the record straight. What many have reported as fact is not, as of now, an established finding.

Nonetheless, news outlets are at it again, propagating apparently unsubstantiated theories as if they are facts. 

A recent volley of headlines includes:

"Russia murdered Litvinenko, says top prosecutor," The Sunday Times, October 2

"Alexander Litvinenko murder was 'London nuclear terror,'" BBC News, October 13

"Litvinenko coroner to examine if Russian state behind killing," The Telegraph, October 13