RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Military. There may be more to last week’s retirements of three generals. One reporter suggests that their retirement has a connection with what he says are several cases of convicted officers being promoted. He has learned that the Presidential Administration has “frozen” their resignations and will be interviewing them to ascertain why “young, promising leaders are retiring from the army”. Report in English here. On the procurement problem – and the growing conviction that a lot of Russian-made weaponry is more expensive than it should be – a Deputy Defence Minister reports that overpricing is caused by an excessive number of subcontractors which, he said, can lead to sudden and unexplained price drops when the initial bid is challenged. It rather sounds as if this is a polite way of saying that many people are “wetting their beaks”.

“Against all”. Russian ballots used to have an entry “Against All” and “Against All” could win and occasionally did. In that case, new election with new candidates. The provision was abolished in 2006 but Sergey Mironov, the leader of Just Russia, has introduced a bill to the Duma to bring it back. An interesting provision that very few countries dare to have because it might lead to unflattering discoveries. I suspect that the real reason Mironov made the proposal was to distinguish his party from United Russia. Whether it passes or is voted down, he will achieve that aim.

Stolypin. I have always had the suspicion that it is Putin’s dream to be considered a second and successful Piotr Stolypin and I have noticed the occasional reference to him in his speeches over the years. He has “suggested” government officials might “like” to contribute to a statue of Stolypin to commemorate his 150^th birthday. I’ll bet all the officials would “like to” and that the statue appears.

Infrastructure. There have been a couple of plane crashes lately and the sinking of a cruise boat on the Volga. Russian infrastructure is rather old and there is some concern. But new things are appearing: roads, hospitals, trains, farm equipment and so on. While a lot of it is foreign-made, it is undeniably new. But it’s a race.

Space. With the launch of the Atlantis, the USA has finished the Space Shuttle program. This leaves the space launch field pretty much to Russia. And to make the point, a Soyuz just launched six US satellites. Not a state of affairs to have been expected in 1961.

Quadriga Award. Putin is one of the winners {“for his contribution to the stability and reliability of German-Russian relations” we are told). This has set off the usual huffing and puffing.

Georgia. Tbilisi has announced the arrest of three photographers on charges of spying for – of course – Russia. One of them is Saakashvili’s personal photographer. The case has been declared secret and no information is allowed out except what the regime chooses to say. Many Georgians have lost their confidence in what the government says and the Coalition for Media Advocacy has protested the secrecy of the case and the Public Defender also wants more evidence. It would appear that their “crime” was photographing the breakup of the protest on 26 May or perhaps selling photos to Russian news outlets. Anyone who believes anything official Tbilisi says is rather naïve. More scepticism about Saakashvili’s periodic discovery of plots from Dmitry Babich here. Meanwhile six opposition parties have united to form the Free Choice coalition. I find it instructive that two party leaders and the founders of one of the six held office under Saakashvili and two of the remaining three parties were former allies of his party. Saakashvili’s Western claque is oblivious to the fact that the people who know him best have, one by one, gone into opposition. (Why do I go on about Saakashvili? you may ask. It is because Georgia has been used for years as a stick with which to beat Russia. Western sources have displayed much credulity. Perhaps not so much any more though.).

Comments

[Jacob Kipp]

Pat, I am surprised that you gave Konovalov's second shot such play. Last week we had a "Generals' demarch" against military reform, and this week we have "the Kremlin concerned with a military opposition." Konovalov has written that there will be a review of cadre policy within MOD on the basis of promotion of criminal officers. The context of this particular charge is the decision of the Minister of Defense Anatoly Serdiukov to create a military police force for the Russian Armed Forces. The first officer identified in that article, Sergei Surovikin, was named by Serdiukov as the probable commander of sid military policy force. Konovalov presents Surovikin as a criminal officer, whose advancement is a sign of the corrupt personnel policies of the MOD. Konovalov mentions two instances where General-Lieutenant Surovikin was under investigation. The first instance concerns events during the 1991 coup when he commanded a battalion c of motorized infantry of the Taman Division in Moscow and one of the BMPs under his command ran over three persons at an underpass near the White House. He was arrested but found innocent and went back into active service six months later. The event was ruled an accident. The second incident occurred when Surovikin was a major and student as the Frunze Academy when he was arrested and tried in 1995. His offense, as Konovalov tells it, was trying to sell a pistol at a time when officers were not getting paid for months of service. In fact, however, Surovikin had been asked to give a pistol to another classmate and did not know that officer was part of a group selling small arms.

This accusation comes a week after he is appointed to head the military police to investigate corruption and garrison crime, including dedovshchina. By Konovalov's logic he should have been court martial in 1995. Born in 1966, he is a combat veteran of Afghanistan, where he fought in a spetsnaz unit, and both Chechen campaigns, where he commanded the 42nd Division. Konovalov mentioned none of that in his kompromat from the unnamed General of Military Justice. I am at a lose to figure out why RT republished this in English unless someone higher wants it to appear. Viktor Baranets has a piece in Komsomol'skaia Pravda for 8 July 2011 on the creation of the military police, which is supposed to happen by the end of this year. Another piece in NVO for 15 July 2011 says that the creation of the "military police" inside the MOD is the subject of intrigues and kompromat. It sees a fight developing between MOD's claim to a police function and other power ministries' claims to police their own forces. Finally, on the issue of Kompromat against General Surovikin one should read Sergei Senin's article on the nature of the kompromat.and its use against this officer. He sees the rsl target here to be Ministe rof Defense Serdiukov, the man who nominated Surivikin. See: Viktor Baranets, " V 2011 godu v armii budet sozdana voennaia politsiia, Komsomol'skaia pravda, 8 July 2011; "Military Police -- po-russki," Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, 15 July 2011; and Sergei Senin, Kandidatura ministra, Rossiiskaia gazeta, 15 July 2011.

Keep up the good work.
Jake

[Patrick Armstrong]

Jake Kipp has forgotten more about the Soviet/Russian Army than most people know. Obviously I got it wrong and was taken in by some kompromat.
All I can say is that there is obviously some nasty stuff going on under the surface.