by Patrick Armstrong
Luzhkov. Medvedev dismissed Luzhkov
as mayor of Moscow on Tuesday and appointed his 1st Deputy
Vladimir Resin pro tem. The reason given was that he had lost confidence in Luzhkov.
Luzhkov thereupon resigned from the pedestal party. As usual, some in the
Kommentariat are trying to spin this as evidence that the Duumvirate is cracking,
but Putin seemed quite comfortable with
the decision. So now what? I see three possibilities from Medvedev’s side. 1.
Luzhkov, who is 74, is allowed to go quietly into retirement. 2. He is given
some face-saving appointment. Either seems to be more likely (based on past
practice) than the third which is that a corruption prosecution is opened
against him, his wife or
both. Putting them on trial would send a very strong signal that Medvedev is
serious about corruption and that even the highest are subject to the law.
(And, come to think of it, not doing so would send quite a different signal).
But, any prosecution has to be transparent and competent (the last being in
rather short supply among government prosecutions: vide YUKOS and Budanov). It’s a pity that
it ended this way: I think Luzhkov did a great deal for his city but it would
have been better had he stepped down a term ago. I believe that what’s really
happening here is that the Team is forcing out those regional heads who think
they own their jobs. While Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, the other recently departed
leader-for-life, has his future worked out – he was just re-elected head of FIDE –Luzhkov is still grumbling and
has invoked the Russian
version of Godwin’s
Law. Something not much noted is that there have been more name changes at
the top than elsewhere: for example, in 1996 Yeltsin ran against Zhirinovskiy, Zyuganov
and Yavlinskiy; in 2000
Putin ran against the three. Only the last had departed the political scene
(and not at his own desire) when Medvedev ran in 2008. Luzhkov had been mayor
since 1992 and Ilyumzhinov president of Kalmykia since 1993. A lot has happened
since then.
Police. Police reform
grinds along. On Sunday Interior Minister Nurgaliyev told a TV station
that police recruits will have to pass a three-stage test: the traditional
questionnaire, a re-evaluation and then they must find a “warrantor” (whatever
that last proves to be). Regular polls will be conducted and monitored to gauge
popular satisfaction with police procedures and a hot line for reporting abuses
will be created.
Russia Inc and the world. As an
illustration of how Russian businesses are becoming connected with the rest of
the world, the Sukhoy
Superjet 100 involves components from at least 6 other countries.
Reporters. The head of the
Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office has ordered a “prompt
and thorough analysis of all criminal cases in which journalists are listed as
victims”.
North Caucasus. A new commission, charged
with economic development and headed by Putin, has been formed. An admission
that previous efforts to improve the dismal economic situation have not been
effective.
Yanayev. Gennadiy Yanayev,
Gorbachev’s vice president and a leader of the August 1991 coup attempt died on Friday,
aged 73. This, combined with the fact that Yeltsin’s vice president led a coup attempt against him, explains
why Russia does not have a Vice President position today.
Jihadism. The last week has
had several significant operations in Dagestan with claims of success and
prevention of
major attacks. Kadyrov is personally leading an operation in Chechnya’s mountains (no
empty boast: he’s done lots of this). I again recommend that people interested
in the jihad in the North Caucasus follow Gordon Hahn’s periodic analyses here.
Moldova. Moldova’s acting
president dissolved
parliament for elections in November. Moldova has been in a political deadlock
for a year and a half with parliament unable to choose a new president. The
potential danger here is that the old
notion that Moldova should dissolve itself and join Romania is no longer
dormant. It is a very divisive issue and has potential to destabilise things in
Moldova (and Romania).
Chutzpah. There’s an old joke
made to explain the meaning of “chutzpah”:
a man, on trial for murdering his parents, pleads for mercy because he is an
orphan. Here is another: “My
first call is addressed to my fellow citizens of Abkhaz and Ossetian origins
who live behind the New Iron Curtain that divides our common nation. I want to
tell them once again: we will protect your rights. Your culture. Your
history-we will work with you. We will
work for you.”
Ossetians and Abkhazians remember Saakashvili’s similar promise in 7 August
2008 and what
followed it on 8 August.
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