by Patrick Armstrong
Over-centralisation. I have long
thought that Putin, probably as a result of his fear that Russia would break
up, over-centralised control (From his first phone-in in 2000: “The ‘power
component’ in this country has become weakened and everything went tumbling
down”.). One of Medvedev’s problems, therefore, is to reduce this
centralisation: his goal of “modernisation” is impossible if all decisions are
made at the centre. Yesterday, the Institute
of Contemporary Development, with which Medvedev is associated, issued its report
on what should be done. In brief, it calls for a general loosening of the
political and command system of the country and a number of changes; many
reverse decisions Putin made when he was President and mark somewhat of a
return to the Yeltsin period. No doubt the Kommentariat will go into a frenzy
of speculation about a struggle between the two Duumvirs, but I believe that
this is all part of the next stage of the Team’s Plan. The report is probably
to be seen as a contribution to the discussion. We will see what happens.
McDonalds. Some years ago I
was asked at a conference what I thought to be the best thing that Canada had
done for Russia: I answered McDonalds, to the surprise of the assembled policy
wonks and academics. Not everyone is aware that it was the Canadian branch of
the company, and the determination of its Chairman, George Cohon, which made
it happen. Snooty people can sniff all they want, but food was in short supply
then in Russia and the McDonalds restaurant on Pushkin Square never turned
anyone away. And, important then: clean toilets. And everything was priced in rubles.
Since then McDonalds has expanded all over Russia. It has stayed the course
through crises; it invested its earnings back into Russia; it makes most of its
product in Russia thereby forcing its standards on suppliers; it virtually
introduced a real service culture to the country; it has been a school for
management; it has inspired many Russian imitators. On Sunday it celebrated
the twentieth anniversary of opening.
GDP. On Monday RosStat
reported that
Russia’s GDP had declined 7.9% in 2009; the good news was that a decline of
8.5% had been projected.
Aeroflot. Apparently
abandoning an idea to create a large regional air carrier, Putin announced that
Aeroflot would take over a number of regional carriers. The stated reason is to
improve service and safety as many of the “babyflots” that came into existence
in the 1990s are in trouble. Reminiscent of the creation of the Canadian
National Railway out of bankrupt lines in the 1920s.
People power. There was a large protest
by several thousand people in Kaliningrad on Sunday over some tax increases.
This has stirred some alarm locally and at the centre as people scurry there. A
number of things appear to have coalesced to cause the protest and, for once,
all the opposition parties got together to organise it. Much of the anger seems
to be aimed at the Governor, Georgiy
Boos. It remains to be seen whether this is anything more than a local
grievance (vide the protests in Vladivostok last
year) or has wider implications.
“Norway Spiral”. Remember the
lights over Norway last December? This analysis makes
interesting reading. The author suggests that the Bulava failures may be a
cover for the (successful) testing of something else.
North Caucasus. Security forces claim to have
killed one of the original jihadists who came to the North Caucasus in the
first Chechen war. He is Mohamad Shaaban, an Egyptian, and is described as
having arrived in Chechnya in 1992 and, together with Khattab, organised the
“North Caucasus branch of al-Qaeda”.
Oil and Belarus. Moscow and Minsk signed an agreement
last week on supplies and transit and the problem seems to be now over. By the
way, those
who think that Ukraine’s future is to be under the Russian boot might profit
from studying Minsk-Moscow relations over the years.
Ukrainian election. A change has been
made to the election rules which Tymoshenko claims could lead to cheating
against her (mind you, the argument for making the change was to prevent her
side from cheating). President Yushchenko has signed off on the
change. Some pundits opine
that there is a below-the-surface alliance between Yushchenko and Yanukovych. Meanwhile,
Tymoshenko threatens
to call her people onto the streets if she doesn’t like the result (bet they
don’t show up). Polls
indicate a narrow win by Yanukovych on Sunday. Unity seems as far away as ever.
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