By Patrick Armstrong
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
С НОВЫМ ГОДОМ!
Jihadist war in Russia. The jihadist war
continues in the North Caucasus. After the deaths of Khattab in 2002 and Basayev
in 2006, jihadist activity slowed greatly; but a new leader, who has
re-animated the “Caucasus Emirate” has appeared, (Said Abu Saad Buryatskiy). His
new tactics use suicide
bombers to target the security forces and other opponents. Since the last
Sitrep, there has been a murder attempt on an imam, car bombs in Nazran and elsewhere in
Ingushetia, a police chief murdered in
Dagestan, a bomb
defused in Kabardino-Balkaria, a suicide car bomb in Makhachkala and
today mines near
a railway line in North Ossetia. However, in strong contrast with their
ineffectiveness when the international jihadists arrived 15 years ago, the
authorities also win some: a group, together with an important leader was killed in Chechnya;
another group with its leader was killed in Dagestan.
The last produced a document
showing payments (reportedly local
extortions as
well as monies from UAE, Georgia,
Turkey and Azerbaijan). Two more were killed today in
Dagestan. This is, of course, the very same war, animated by the same ideology,
using the same methods and fought for the same purpose, which we see in the
USA, Pakistan
and Saudi
Arabia and around the world. It’s just being fought in a different place.
But, because that place is Russia, many in the Kommentariat cannot
make the connection. (And I’m not convinced that very many intelligence and
security services truly understand it either).
Population. The Health and Social
Development Minister said
that, as of 1 November, the population was 141.9 million and by 1 January it
would be 15,000 to 25,000 larger than it had been the year before. The increase
comes from immigration (about a third of a million) because the natural decline
continues. Although at a slower rate: the birth rate is up about 3% and the
death rate down about the same. The government program is having an effect at
both ends of the demographic problem.
Financial crisis. Last week Medvedev
said that Russia
had passed through the worst of the global financial crisis and he anticipated
modest growth in 2010. Indications suggest he is correct in thinking so.
Interior Ministry. Medvedev has
signed a decree
ordering the Interior Ministry Staff
to undertake reform because “there has been a recent increase in offences
against law and disciplinary infractions committed by police officers”. It is reported that some
of the aims are a 20% staff reduction and a review of selection procedures. Eradicating
corruption – which is to say, getting it down to “normal G7” levels
– will be a long, weary effort for Medvedev and his successors.
Street theatre. Here we go again:
“opposition” groups apply for a demonstration permit; the city refuses, claiming
the location was already booked; they march there anyway; they are arrested and
soon released; Western governments huff
and puff.
When they march where the city permits them (and what city allows anyone to
demonstrate anywhere at any time?) nothing
happens.
Things that aren’t
reported. There are all kinds of projects in Russia that don’t get much mention.
Two items caught my eye recently: an upgrade
of the control system for Russia’s railways and the “modernity” of the
ambulance in this photo.
Not all of Russia’s new money is being spent on yachts and fast cars.
People power. There was a blow to
the opposition to Gazprom’s proposed high-rise in St Petersburg
when the city council voted
against holding a referendum on its construction.
Gas. Gazprom has announced that
Belarus will be charged about $168 tcm in the first quarter of 2010 (up from
2009’s average price of US$150 tcm). Meanwhile Russia and Turkmenistan have agreed on gas
supplies at the European price level (last year’s price was about US$300 tcm).
Customs union. As of Friday,
Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have begun using
common customs tariffs. It is planned to introduce a common customs space in
July and a single economic space in January 2012.
Ukrainian Election. The last poll
before the presidential election on the 17th shows Yanukovych
leading comfortably (about 30%), Tymoshenko second (about 20%) and Yushchenko
far behind. Therefore, Yanukovych will not likely win on the first round but
will presumably on the second against Tymoshenko on 7 February. I would suggest
that any other result would be prima facie evidence of severe cheating, given
that these polling results have held for the past couple of years. I wonder who
really won in 2004.
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