by Patrick Armstrong
Russia and Europe. Readers will know that since the Ossetia war I have
been predicting a change in European attitudes towards Russia. My argument is
that many there have realised what a bill of goods they were sold about
Saakashvili, Georgia and Russia (to say nothing about the gas supply problem)
and will therefore be re-considering their ideas about Russia’s alleged
hostility. Some more indications: Medvedev seems to have had a fruitful visit
to France and I
would expect similar results when he visits Italy today. Furthermore, it
appears that his ideas on a new security treaty (Russ, Eng) are at
least being listened to rather than dismissed as they first were. And,
interestingly enough, Berlusconi just visited Belarus signalling
the end of the shunning of “Europe’s last dictator”.
NATO expansion. Russians have been
saying NATO promised not to expand. Are they right? Apparently.
Iran. Russia’s
representative on the IAEA voted with Western
countries to criticise Tehran for its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad was
not best pleased. So, Bushehr delayed, no SS-300s and now
this.
Demographics. More gradual
improvements are reported as births
continue to increase and deaths decrease. One analyst expects
that, at present rates, the two rates will cross over in 18 months or so. A
rather large drop
(even suspiciously so – there is a mild anti-alcohol campaign on) in alcohol
consumption is reported.
Chemical Weapons. The Foreign
Ministry has announced
that so far, Russia has destroyed 45% of its CW stocks in line with its
obligations under the Chemical
Weapons Convention. All are supposed to be gone by 2012.
Gas. At their meeting
a couple of weeks ago, Tymoshenko promised Putin that
Ukraine would fulfill all its commitments. Gazprom is estimating a price next
year of US$280 tcm with a
reduced supply – it and Naftohaz agreed to cut gas
deliveries by 35% in 2010. Then Medvedev said that Belarus’s
price would be 30-40% lower than for EU states in 2010. For comparison, Germany was
paying about $230 tcm in October; but it pays a fluctuating price which, a year
earlier was $576 tcm. Russia is still subsidising its neighbours. But to a
lesser degree than before.
Magnitskiy. The lawyer for Hermitage Capital Management, Sergey Magnitskiy died in prison in Moscow where he had been held on a tax dispute for a year - a consequence, it appears, of Russia’s brutal pre-trial detention rules and the appalling condition of the ancient and overcrowded prison. Medvedev ordered an investigation on the 24th. For what it’s worth, the prosecutors say he was involved in a scheme to illegally buy and sell Gazprom stock.
Zakoniki. A year or so ago I joked that, given Medvedev’s
utterances about “legal nihilism”, the Kommentariat would stop talking about
the siloviki and start
talking about the sinister zakoniki behind him. Well, it hasn’t happened, but Russia’s
top courts and RIA-Novosti have announced a program
to “provide prompt and objective coverage of the Russian judiciary and legal
system”.
Russia Inc. As of 20 November, Russia’s international reserves
were up again to US$443.8
billion. GDP fell
8% year-on-year in October but has been inching up over the last five months. Foreign investment
is way down
however; that decline is, of course, not just because of Russia’s actions and
events.
History wars. For those among you who read Russian, here is a site with a lot of Russian
historical documents. Evidently part of Medvedev’s Get the History Right
project.
Terrorism. A bomb derailed the Nevskiy Express on the 27th,
killing a number of people. The police are tending to suspect
jihadists. On the 20th a priest was murdered in his church; there may be
a similar
connection. Another bomb on a railway line in Dagestan failed to
do damage.
Statues. The Lenin statue
in Kiev that was vandalised in June has been restored and re-erected.
Does that mean that Leninism
has returned to Kiev? And Moscow’s Worker
and Collective Farm Woman statue has been re-erected after a long
renovation.
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