COMMENTARY
by Gordon Hahn
For nearly a decade Russia has been living under a stealth-like soft authoritarianism, not a 'managed democracy', as many persist in calling the regime. Last week's local elections removed the cloaking device from the system's no longer stealth-like dagger. 'You Tube' and various Russian websites exposed efforts to control and falsify the vote, the bulk of which were undertaken by supporters of the authorities' party, United Russia, although not necessarily at the request of Medvedev or Putin.
This is not to say that the election results were completely falsified. In some regions, such as in the North Caucasus republics of Adygeya and Karachaevo-Cherkessia, opposition candidates managed to win mayoral elections in the second largest cities in both of those republics. However, on the whole and especially in the important city council vote in Moscow, the elections were a real abomination. Hence, even Russia's 'managed opposition' perceived the demise of Russia's hitherto virtual democracy.
October 11's elections exposed President Dmitry Medvedev either negatively as a political dunce, dupe, or deceptionist - or more positively as a skillful reformer maneuvering in an authoritarian-friendly environment. Which conclusion you come to depends on what your interpretation of the politics surrounding the elections is. Which one is right will be borne out by Medvedev's (and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's) future actions.
According to the political dunce
scenario, Medvedev repeatedly raises expectations of a gradual political thaw,
only to have his resulting expectations smashed. Thus, he published his bold article "Forward Russia!"
- a call for a democratic mobilization against authoritarian bureaucrats and
its guardians (the siloviki) - just before perhaps the most fraudulent
elections in post-Soviet Russian history.
One cause of revolutions is raised but unmet expectations, especially when
the gap between expectations and actual circumstances peaks.
Recent moves contribute to such a dynamic. Medvedev's article promised political reform, but his endorsement of the election results discredited him and the prospects for democratic reforms in many eyes. They angered leading democrats and insulted the loyal 'opposition', prompting the latter to boycott the Duma in protest. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev chimed in, harshly attacking the regime's not-so-stealth authoritarianism. Opinion polls suggest that the overwhelming majority of Russians agrees with the democrats rather than with Medvedev and Putin regarding the election. Noviye Izvestia published one poll that found just 3 percent of respondents believing the vote to be free and fair. A third of respondents regarded United Russia's victory to be the result of "massive falsifications," and 44 percent said it resulted from its access to "administrative resources."
If the above is the truth of Russian politics' last few weeks, then Medvedev is a political dunce, and his actions make a revolution from below in the mid- to long-term more likely than before the raised expectations, especially if Russia's economic recovery stalls or backslides.
However, might Medvedev have been duped into discrediting his democratic credentials in a Putin power play?
This scenario holds that Medvedev sincerely expected his calls for permitting the opposition to function freely would be heeded by bureaucrats, siloviki and regional elites - and that the loyal 'opposition' and some outside democrats would garner more, not fewer votes as is typical in Russia's local elections. Under this 'dupe scenario,' Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, First Deputy Presidential Administration Head Vladislav Surkov, and others would have encouraged this illusion, setting the president up for a fall on the way to Putin's return to the presidency in 2012. Falling for the deception, Medvedev's "Forward Russia!" would have seemed a brilliant stroke, setting the stage for proposals gradual political reforms.
A twist on the dupe scenario is that Medvedev and Putin are partnering in the deception promising re-democratization to keep the West and domestic opposition off balance. A deceptive tandem-ocracy scenario is the most dismal for the Russian present and future.
There is one remaining hopeful scenario: Medvedev planned the discrepancy between words and deeds, between the promise of "Forward Russia" and October 11's vote and further backtracking on democracy. He foresaw the betrayal and persistence of the chinovniki and the siloviki and hoped the contradiction would outrage liberals, democrats, and even parts of the loyal 'opposition' and mobilize them into new political formations he can harness to push reforms forward.
Medvedev's upcoming presidential speech to parliament could be the best, and the last chance to kickoff a Medvedev or Putin-era re-democratization plan. Chairman of the Federation Council and loyal opposition party 'Free Russia', Sergei Mironov, has made a series of sound proposals for eliminating electoral fraud. Medvedev's speech will likely and indeed should declare the Kremlin's intent to pass these proposals into law.
In lieu of proposals for
re-democratization in Medvedev's speech, Russia will see a long period of
prohibitively slow development, even stagnation. It might be punctuated by a few forms of economic modernization,
but could very well conclude with yet another risky Russian revolution. To avoid the dangers of miscalculation,
the Kremlin should begin significant re-democratization now. Real modernization with a guarantee of
political stability will be impossible without a political liberalization. Russian history's lesson is not that
democracy is eternally alien to Russian culture. Rather, that illegal revolutionary
methods to attain democracy or authority, whether from above or below, bring
catastrophes. The only way for
Russia to move forward is by real reform that includes the responsible
opposition in the process of political competition and development.
Nice blog....
Posted by: Imran Khan | November 20, 2009 at 02:24 AM