UKRAINE: A UNION STATE WITH RUSSIA?

REPRINTS

Would the Real Ukraine Please Stand Up?

by Graham Stack, Russia Profile

The Ukrainian People May Want a Union State with Russia, but Few Russians Wish to Join the Ukraine

KIEV/ Opinion polls show that Ukraine is a Russian-leaning country, very different from the one described by Western media and the Ukrainian foreign policy elite. “If we were to fantasize, and pretend that [the Russian Prime Minister] Vladimir Putin would run for the post of Ukrainian president, then according to opinion poll results he would win right off,” sais Alexei Lyashenko, an analyst at Kiev’s Research & Branding (R&B) polling institute. “His only serious competitor would be [Russian President] Dmitry Medvedev.”

The R&B poll published on May 25 shows that for all the rhetoric about the Westward-bound Ukraine breaking free of Russia’s malignant influence and Putin’s imperialism, the reality on the ground is very different. “In fact, Vladimir Putin’s high rating in Ukraine is nothing new, but quite steady,” Lyashenko added. “It was over 50 percent even during the ‘Orange Revolution’.”

Opinion poll results published in May indicate that 58 percent of Ukrainians have a positive attitude toward Vladimir Putin, and 56 percent approve of the current Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Twenty-one percent take a neutral stance, and 16 percent think of them negatively—25 percent disapprove of Putin and 14 percent of Medvedev.

R&B’s survey also found that 35 percent of Ukrainians would like to see Ukraine united with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, compared to 22 percent who wish to join the EU and ten percent who wanted to restore the Soviet Union. These results were confirmed by a poll published on June 17 by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). According to KIIS President Valery Khmelko, 23 percent of Ukrainians desire full unification with Russia – compared to only 12 percent of Russians wanting the same.

Inarguably under the influence of the 2008 and 2009 political and economic crisis wracking Ukraine, the number of Ukrainians rooting for “reunification” has risen over the last year, from 20 percent to 23 percent, and the number of Russians in favor has fallen from 19 percent to 12 percent. “These findings also indicate that the ‘prevailing willingness of the Russians to append Ukraine to their country, forming one state’ is an erroneous idea, as the overwhelming majority of Russians do not want such a union,” said Khmelko.

While only a quarter of Ukrainian respondents want full unification with Russia, 68 percent want an EU-style border-free regime with Russia, with Russia and Ukraine being “independent but friendly states” without a visa regime or custom controls. Only 7.8 percent of respondents were in favor of Ukraine’s relations with Russia becoming the same as its relations with other countries, i.e. with border controls, customs and visas.

In fact, this contrasts even with the prevailing sentiment in Russia, where respondents are far more cautious about union with Ukraine. Perhaps due to the Ukrainian leadership’s antagonistic policies toward Russia, emphasized by the Russian state-controlled media, only 50 percent of Russian respondents want to see a border-free regime between the two countries. Twenty-nine percent want relations with Ukraine to be the same as with all other countries. “Ukrainians’ attitude toward Russia is much better than the Russians’ attitude toward the Ukraine. Over 90 percent of people in Ukraine have a positive attitude toward Russia – and it has become even better over the past year,” Khmelko noted.

According to Lyashenko, the Ukrainian affection for Putin and Medvedev is most concentrated in Eastern Ukraine, where 75 percent think of them positively. However, even in the Western Ukrainian districts where Russian is hardly ever spoken, around 25 percent of respondents described their attitude toward the Russian leaders as favorable.

Surprisingly, the polls found that in contrast to geographical factors, age does not influence the Ukrainians’ attitude toward Russia and its leaders. “The Ukrainian preference for Russian state-controlled television and the desire for strong leadership in the times of crisis also play a role,” said Lyashenko. “But the main reason why Medvedev and Putin score so high is the endless conflicts and score-settling in Ukrainian politics, which make the Russian politicians look good,” he said.

None of the current Ukrainian leaders can compete with Putin and Medvedev in terms of popularity. The pro-Russian head of the opposition Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych currently enjoys a 25 percent approval rating, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko—14 percent, and the new face, Arsenyi Yatsenyuk, 13 percent. Only two percent of Ukrainians would vote for President Viktor Yushchenko, the most anti-Russian top Ukrainian official, in the upcoming elections in January of 2010.

Nor do Ukrainians have much sympathy for the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whom Yushchenko vocally supported during the country’s conflict with Russia over South Ossetia in August of 2008. According to Lyashenko, 45 percent have a negative opinion of Saakashvili, and only 11 percent have a positive one.

Back in March, the Polish daily Rzeczpospolita published an opinion poll claiming that 56 percent of Polish respondents fear Vladimir Putin, and 58 percent believe that Russia’s foreign policy endangers Poland's national security—this despite the fact that Poland has no border with Russia other than in Kaliningrad, and, unlike the Ukraine, is a member of both NATO and the EU.

Comments

[Lejla]

you are crazy,NONE of UKRAINIAN People want the reunion with russians for what they have done with us (HOLOCOST,War,CRIMEA seaport in Sevastopol)...

[Brandon]

It seems a non-issue whether Ukraine wants to unify its borders and be absorbed into Russia, it is either way heavily influenced and protected by Russia as its key Regional Power. That is a fact, and considering the fracturing government within Ukraine, they seem fortunate to have a stable Russia as a close partner for security and economy.

[SAK]

Leja, you don't speak for us. As for the Crimea and Sevastopol, those weren't even Ukranian 50 years ago.

[Jerred]

Leja that's why these opinion polls exist. You don't speak for everyone, and collectively, your views are in the minority. And what does Russia have to do with the holocaust? Wrong country...