RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armsrong

North Caucasus. Medvedev visited Makhachkala, Dagestan yesterday for a Security Council meeting and stated that “Overall, 308 crimes of a terrorist nature have been committed so far in the North Caucasus in 2009.” His solution was a combination of security activity and amelioration of “root causes” among which he named “low living standards, high unemployment and massive, horrifyingly widespread corruption.” A plan was apparently evolved at the meeting: we shall see. The question is: to what extent are the attacks on police and officials (8 in the last week!) a product of desperation and a habit of killing after all the warfare there; “normal” (in the Russian context) “bizness” disputes; or the operations of jihadists? Whatever the cause may be, and it’s likely a combination, the situation is growing slowly worse. It is a very explosive place: quick roundup at JRL/2009/109/12. Another reason, by the way, to try and keep a rein on Saakashvili’s military ambitions: the last time Georgia tried forcibly to incorporate the unwilling people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, fighters from the North Caucasus, seeking the re-creation of their “Mountaineer Republic”, fought there. They brought their fight home and, especially, to Chechnya. Chechnya attracted a professional jihadist named Khattab who was instrumental in causing the second war. Moscow does not want a repeat performance.

Pikalyovo. The transcript of Putin’s meeting in the town is worth reading as an illustration of many of Russia’s problems “in the weeds”: a Soviet-era unified plant complex was broken up in the privatisations; maybe there was some ripping off; as the sole employer, it had large responsibilities for the town’s social welfare system; the world economy reduced demand for its products; the workers exhausted normal channels and only got attention after blocking the highway; the issue required the personal intervention of A Boss. It is also an example of Putin’s style and authority. By the way, he did not call Deripaska a “cockroach” as has been sloppily  reported (see the end of the transcript). This is not the first time Putin has been wilfully misquoted – see, for example “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” which  is  endlessly  recycled to  prove his  evil.

Russia Inc. Putin reported that foreign investment totalled US$12 billion in the first quarter, down 30% on the previous year. The federal budget deficit so far this year is US$16.3 billion or nearly 4% of GDP. International reserves are up to nearly US$410 billion.

Chechnya. Kadyrov says Doku Umarov, the current “Amir of the Caucasus Emirate”, has been seriously wounded, possibly killed. But this has been said before and we await confirmation.

Gas Wars. After all Moscow’s huffing and puffing, Naftohaz paid Gazprom in full for May’s gas deliveries.

History. A film discusses the Lenin statues still standing in Kiev. Some think they should be removed (totalitarian reminders have no place in a democracy); others - that they should stay (part of our history). A reminder that the issue is not just a Russian one and still attracts passions all over the post-Soviet space.

Manas. Perhaps the US-led coalition will get Manas airbase back: Afghan President Karzai sent President Bakiyev a letter requesting an extension to the lease. Bakiyev had numerous grievances about the previous deal that will have to be met but signs from Bishkek seem promising. But Bishkek appears to have two principal issues: the fee and the worry that the base may be used for other things than supply to Afghanistan.

Belarus. The Russian consumer rights organisation has banned almost all dairy products from Belarus; its story is that producers failed to comply with new legislation.

Georgia. In a speech attempting to explain why so many of his former allies were calling for his resignation, Saakashvili essentially said they were all corrupt; at other times he has accused them of being Moscow’s stooges. Meanwhile, his former Ambassador to Moscow and his former Foreign Minister appealed to the West to pay more and better attention to Georgia and the actual nature of Saakashvili’s rule. Yesterday one of the opposition leaders, Levan Gachechiladze and Saakashvili met. According to the former, “I could not see in him even a bit of sign that he is ready for changes. So, I think and I firmly believe that our struggle should continue and become more radical.” About 20,000 marched in Tbilisi yesterday to commemorate 2 months of protests. As the stalemate grows, violence is becoming more possible (there were some explosions today in Zugdidi). Quiet repression is reported in the background: the sort of things, indeed, that would be headlines were they said to be happening in Russia). 

Comments

[Vladimir Vladimirovich]

Mr. Armstrong, I am not a Russian grammatician, but I must object to your translation of “крупнейшей геополитической катастрофой века” as “a major geopolitical disaster of the century.”

There are two problems with this перевод:
(1) Russian has no articles, so you are intentionally downplaying Putin's comment by using an indefinite article, "a," instead of the definite article, "the." A good translator can only guess which is better to use when rendering nouns from Russian into English. And the context here is not at all vague.
(2)"Крупнейшей" is a superlative, not a comparative. It means "the most major" or "the majorest" - not "a major" or even "the major." "Major" is itself an awkward selection for крупнейшей, which, as I said, is the superlative form of the adjective "крупный." The simplest translation here would be "large" or "big." This would make "great," or, in Putin's wording, "greatest" the far better translation.

Perhaps you should beef up on your Russian grammar before lecturing the willful misquoters in the Western СМИ?

[Chris Von Doom]

I hereby decree that Vladimir Vladimirovich's comment is, as Aristotle so eloquently put it in his little-known work Contra the Impeciles, extremely stupid.

This is because the context is indeed not vague, but not in the way the VV suggests. If Putin meant "the," that would imply that the collapse of the USSR was a greater geopolitical catastrophe than WWII, and clearly the various negative effects that Putin lists after his statement, while sucking, were not greater calamities than those created by WWII. Therefore, it is unlikely that he meant the comment that way, but rather was making the (true) statement that the collapse of the USSR was a very great geopolitical tragedy.

[Patrick Armstrong]

Sorry VV,
"Самый крупнейшей" is the "greatest"

[Herbert]

Talk about "sloppy reporting"! Mr. Armstrong, you set a new standard in that! What a hypocrite!

If you claim Mr. Putin did not use the word "cockroach," don't you feel the slightest necessity to set forth the actual Russian words you claim he DID use, along with your source and your proposed "accurate" translation of them? Apparently not. Is that your view of "neat" reporting? It certainly isn't mine. Surely you aren't suggesting readers take THE KREMLIN'S OWN TRANSLATION as gospel, are you?

Then, how dare you claim reporters have "willfully" misquoted Putin without offering ANY evidence of your claim? How do YOU know the error, IF there was one, wasn't simply a mistake? In fact, you CONTRADICT yourself by saying the reporting was "sloppy" and also "willfull." Can't be both, and it's extraordinarily sloppy of YOU to suggest otherwise.

[Vladimir Vladimirovich]

Very sorry to break this to you guys, but "Самый крупнейшей" means "the most greatest."

Besides the addition of the word самый to nominative case adjectives in the formation of the superlative degree, e. g. самый чистый, самая красивая, самое длинное, you can also add the suffixes √ейший and √айший to all qualitative adjectives in order to derive the superlative. The suffix -айший is added to adjective stems ending on the three velars (к г х). The velars are then palatalized (к > ч, г > ж, х > ш). The suffix -ейший is added to all other qualitative adjectives.

Mr. Doom (incidentally, I hope you have a doctorate, because that would make you Dr. Doom and one of Spiderman's arch enemies), I appreciate your comments, but, as I'm sure you learned in villain school, WWII would probably not resonate in the Russian consciousness as a tragedy, given that they won! Indeed, it's known to Russians not as World War II so much as it is celebrated as the Великая Отечественная война (the Great Patriotic War, with "great" here taking on its normative meaning).

[Vladimir Vladimirovich]

Probably not really its 'normative meaning,' come to think of it, but you get the idea, anyway. The War ended in victory and the Collapse ended in poverty at home and ethnic Russians surrounded by hostiles in the near abroad.

I'll stress again that my point is grammatical. Superlatives, people, do you speak them?