Russia: Other Points of View

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Big Creek, Small Paddle

By Chris Weafer

•    The Moscow bourses will be closed on Monday due to a national holiday (Defenders of the Fatherland Day). Normal trade will take place in the GDRs and ADRs in London and New York, albeit activity is usually very light on days when Moscow is closed.

•    After last week’s big fall in global markets, there maybe a small rebound on bargain hunting early in the week. But the momentum remains downwards as economic and corporate news flow worsens. Investor confidence that the various aid packages will make a difference in 2009 is also deteriorating. The next point of “hope” is the early April G20 meeting in London. Markets may stage a rally in the weeks ahead of that as global leaders will inevitably try to raise confidence levels.

US-RUSSIA RELATIONS

Magic Numbers

by Eugene Ivanov

Writing for The National Interest a few weeks ago, Andreas Umland painted a scary picture of the future of U.S.-Russia relations.  He argued that ordinary Russians are becoming increasingly “hostile to and paranoid about the United States.”  Umland warned that if the current trend continues “at the same speed at which it has been moving since 2000”, then not only a cold, but a nuclear war between the two countries could be possible. 

RUSSIA MEDIA WATCH

Response to Wall Street Journal Why Nurture Russia's Illusions? by Matthew Kaminsky, February 13, 2009

by Gordon Hahn

The Wall Street Journal article was written by a member of its editorial board, Matthew Kaminski, who gives us a glimpse into the kind of thinking that shapes the paper’s editorial line on Russia.  The article is another one-sided editorial on U.S.-Russian relations.  Outrageous simplifications, grossly negligent omissions, slanted terminology, and inaccurate statements abound throughout this article. 

To access the full analysis, please click here Download WSJ_Kaminski_2_13_09.doc

FREEDOM OF PRESS IN RUSSIA

Russia's Free Press Hoax

by William Dunkerley

A recent New York Times editorial (February 12) claims that Vladimir Putin stifled Russia’s free press. That’s not the first time this accusation has been leveled. Last year, the International Herald Tribune ran the headline, “Kasparov: Putin killed Russia free press.” The Toronto Star wrote, “Free press under siege in Russia.” Right on theme, Reporters Without Borders earlier proclaimed, “...independent press has all but disappeared in Russia.” 

What’s the hoax here? It’s the idea that there was actually a free press to stifle or kill. In reality, there was none.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Medvedev. Faithful readers will know that, for some years, I have been saying that Putin over centralised power; perhaps understandably, given his fears in 2000 that Russia could altogether collapse. I believe that  his concentration of all decisions in the offices next to his strangles initiative (in this connection I am amused to see some in the Rightosphere picking up on his warning that the Soviet experience shows the folly of state control). I expected that his successor would have to take steps to change course. That is what I believe Medvedev is doing: witness his discussion with Novaya Gazeta, his re-activation of the human rights group, his remarks on the “information society”, his “fireside chats”, his list of leading personnel and others. It would be quite wrong, I believe, to search here for disagreements with Putin – they are a team and have been for some time. There is every sign that they are cooperating in their division of labour.

RUSSIA MEDIA WATCH

Response to New York Times Editorial "Mr.Obama and Russia", February 12, 2009

by Gordon Hahn

The New York Times has produced another one-sided editorial on U.S.-Russian relations.  Although the editors take a somewhat more flexible line, they paint Moscow’s actions in the most sinister light.  Simultaneously, they endeavor to blame the sorry state of U.S.-Russian relations on the Bush administration, even though many of the Russia’s most important grievances vis-à-vis the U.S. originated during the Clinton administration, which is so heavily represented in the new Obama administration.  It is quite clear that partisan domestic politics, as well as its traditional Russophobia, color the Times’ perspective on U.S.-Russia relations .   

To access the full analysis, please click here Download NYT_editorial_12_Feb_09

DEBUNKING THE LATEST RUMOR

Manas Airbase 

by Patrick Armstrong

ISSUE: Manas Airbase. In 2001 the USA leased part of the Manas airfield in the Kyrgyz Republic to support US and Allied operations in Afghanistan. This month, President Bakiyev announced that he would seek to close the base. The Kyrgyz Republic Parliament will discuss the issue on 19 February.

INTERPRETATION: Many in the West saw Bakiyev as a puppet and the closure being orchestrated in Moscow so as to embarrass President Obama. “Bakiyev Pleases Moscow” (Jamestown Foundation) “Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has been trying to reclaim the influence it once had in the former Central Asian Soviet republics, so Russian pressure on Kyrgyzstan is not unexpected.” (BBC) “"I think that the principal motivation is to reassert Russian influence and get visible U.S. presence out of former Soviet republics," said retired Adm. William J. Fallon” (Huffington Post) “Russia Offers Kind Words, but Its Fist Is Clenched” (NYT). Most of these accounts mention Bakiyev’s objections but seem to regard them as a cover for Russian machinations.

COMMENT: But Bakiyev has long been frustrated with the relationship with Washington. “The president said he had repeatedly suggested that the US side should review the airbase agreement and raise the leasing fee for the airbase, but the suggestion was ignored. He added that the base closure was also caused by violations of law by US military personnel, including the killing of a Kyrgyz national by a US soldier in December 2006.”

There are other reasons why the issue has become a significant challenge:

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Incredible Shrinking Russia

By Chris Weafer
 
Russian equities now only represent a 5% share of the average global emerging market portfolio. In mid 2008 the share was more than double that at 12.1%.
 
Funds that are benchmarked against the MSCI Indices are now almost neutral in Russia while the international funds have been the big sellers amongst the mainstream institutions.
 
In terms of equity fund flows, Russia is currently almost sidelined.
 
From “hero to zero” from July to end 2008, Russia has a tough struggle to rebuild the attraction to international investors that it enjoyed only six months ago.

RUSSIA MEDIA WATCH

Response To New York Times Article "A Threat to Putin’s Big Plans" by Clifford Levy, February 1, 2009

RMW analysis by Russia: Other Points of View

The New York Times has produced another in its unending string of negative articles on Russia. This article is replete with inaccuracies and omission of facts that might throw into doubt the blaming of the entire Russian economic crisis on Kremlin and Vladimir Putin.  Most outstanding in this regard, is the effort to ignore the U.S. origins of the global crisis and indeed to ignore the global nature of the crisis.  Thus, in Clifford Levy’s and the Times’ view, the Russian crisis is the sole consequence of Moscow’s dependence on oil exports. It is not mentioned that most countries are severely hurt by the crisis – many more so than Russia – and they are not oil exporters.  

To access the full analysis, please click here Download NYT_Levy_1_Feb_09

RUSSIA MEDIA WATCH

Pravda on the Potomac-1 (The Washington Post Coverage of Russia in January 2009)

by Eugene Ivanov

The Washington Post's January 2009 coverage of Russia was impressive: according to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, a total of 27 reports, editorials, and op-eds were published.  Hardly any other foreign country was blessed with such attention.

(Naturally, I'm talking only about topics related to political and economic developments in Russia.  I'm leaving aside travel book reviews, however politicized, another merciless beating of a Russian female tennis player at the hands of the magnificent Serena Williams, or perpetual marvels at the performance of Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin.)