Russia: Other Points of View

Dealing with Revisionist Russia

by Ronald Asmus, Washington Post,  December 13, 2008

RMW Analysis by Russia: Other Points of View

The Washington Post continues its anti-Russian campaign by 1) pushing for NATO expansion and 2) pushing the exclusion of Moscow from any role in helping formulate European and Eurasian security policies.  The Post again gives print space to Ronald Asmus, executive director of the Brussels-based Transatlantic Center and strategic planner at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (two pro-NATO organizations). Asmus was also former deputy assistant secretary of state in the Clinton administration.  He defends NATO expansion and urges turning against Moscow’s recent proposals for joint U.S.-E.U.-Russian security policymaking towards a new security architecture for Europe.  Curiously, Asmus refrains from an explicit call for NATO expansion to Georgia and Ukraine, replacing Membership Action Plans (MAP) with NATO-Georgia and NATO-Ukraine Commissions, perhaps reflecting NATO member’s current and more subtle approaches toward these two countries.

To view the full analysis, please click here Download WashPost_Asmus

Struggling to the End Line

by Chris Weafer  

• Expectations of a much higher year-end rally are fading as investors focus on the prospects of a sharp deterioration in the global economy and in corporate earnings in 2009. With the newsflow expected to be very bad in the 1^st and 2^nd Qtrs, there is little incentive to buy now.
• There is a high risk of a global market sell-off in January as many hedge funds re-open for redemptions.
• The conflict in the Mid East and rising tensions on the India-Pakistan border will push the price of oil higher early this week. That will provide some support for the Russian oil producers and may even lower the pressure on the ruble.  
• Other shares that may feature with newsflow this week include Gazprom (Ukraine gas dispute), Uralkali (speculation about the outcome of the review), Comstar (Svyazinvest progress), VTB and Sberbank (if VEB adds to its portfolio to boost end year values). The electricity sector remains very oversold and looks – selectively – very good for 2009.

The Allies Lay Down a Marker

from the Boston Globe, December 23, 2008

At a summit in Brussels of NATO foreign ministers, the allies were determined to renew dialogue with Russia and delay indefinitely any decision on admitting Georgia and Ukraine as members.

Russia Equity Week: Waiting for Sanity Claus

by Chris Weafer

• Western markets, including the GDR and ADR markets in London and New York, will wind down to an early close on Wednesday and while the US will have limited trading on Friday, London will remain closed. The local Moscow bourses will trade normal hours throughout the week.
• VEB is expected to take advantage of quieter international markets to push the price of state enterprise shares higher into the year-end. The banks and Gazprom are likely to lead that while the oil sector is facing bigger problems.
• The electricity tariff news is less bad than feared and companies may get state support. That should help the better placed Gencos to rally. Comstar looks good on Svyazinvest hopes.
• Friday’s rally in the dollar is expected to continue as traders consider the recent euro strength as too much, too soon. That will prove a major double-whammy against the ruble after last week’s band widening. The prospect of a ruble-dollar rate close to 30.0 by end next week is high.
• The price of oil remains under pressure despite the big OPEC cut. That will continue until there is some certainty about demand, probably not before the spring. The short-term outlook for oil is for further weakness.

Reagan's Evolving Views on Russia and Their Relevance to Today

Talk given by Suzanne Massie at the Kennan Institute on December 1, 2008

In March 1983, in a famous speech Ronald Reagan referred to the Soviet Union as an  “evil empire.”  In June 1988 he was walking around Red Square arm in arm with Mikhail Gorbachev.  What happened to change his views in those few years?  This continues to be a matter of speculation to this day.

I am a writer who has spent 40 years studying and visiting Russia. During those years I have been afforded unusual possibilities to meet and know a multitude of Russians in every field and station in life -- from the humble to the high-- and to closely share their lives in ways that have been unusual for any foreigner.  I have several godchildren, have been a witness at weddings, attended funerals and celebrations, shared both their joys and their griefs. In Soviet days I was once told suspiciously by a head of the Soviet desk at the State Department that I was the single American citizen who knew the most Soviet citizens personally – as if it were a crime. Indeed some Soviet officials thought the same and I was denied a visa from 1972 -83.

I was afforded a unique opportunity to get to know President Reagan, this still ultimately mysterious president, through a series of meetings, which took place during the second four years of his presidency. He surprised me in many ways. One of the most important was to discover what a reserved man this president known as “the great communicator” was – a man who kept his own counsel and his cards close to his chest. Indeed, I was told by his friend Michael Deaver that no one, including his beloved Nancy, ever really knew how he arrived at his decisions. So, although we talked about many things, I cannot tell you definitively how or why his views on Russia evolved. But I can tell you some of the things we talked about.

Russian Federation Weekly SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Memorial raid. On the 4^th, in their customary heavy-handed and secretive way, police raided the St Petersburg offices of Memorial and took some documents. As usual, there are many more theories than facts: this blog entry summarises the various theories. The official line is that the raid was conducted pursuant to hate-crime laws (a notoriously broad category that can justify almost anything in Russia and elsewhere), although it seems improbable that Memorial is connected to an anti-Semitic film. Like so much else in Russia, the few known facts will be used as a peg on which to hang one’s pet theory.

A New Start for Arms-Control Talks?

www. stratfor.com (Strategic Forecasting Inc), December 17, 2008

U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Indiana) arrived in Moscow for talks on Tuesday. During his visit, expected to run through Saturday, he reportedly will focus on disarmament, with an eye toward renewing or replacing the arms-control regime established under the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), which is set to expire on Dec. 5, 2009.

No need for a new Cold War

by Bill White,  Mayor of Houston and former U.S. deputy energy secretary

Dallas Morning News 

President-elect Barack Obama's new team should make U.S. foreign policy more effective worldwide by re-establishing U.S.-Russian relations based on good communication and mutual interests. Until recently, this approach was an effective cornerstone of U.S. policy for two decades.

Those of us engaged in quiet diplomacy with the Russians during that time recognized that Russia could help the U.S. fight terrorism, avoid nuclear proliferation and diversify the world's energy supply. Recently our ability to influence Russia has been put at risk by empty threats and suspension of some diplomatic activity after the conflict with Georgia.

Barack Obama will correct the US policy towards Russia

by Vlad Sobell

Summary 

• President-elect Barack Obama is the right person to tackle the economic, foreign policy and moral crisis affecting the United States.    
• His bi-partisan approach in domestic politics suggests he is determined to overcome the limitations of the rigidly partisan system. 
• The correction of the dangerously misconceived policy towards Russia, bequeathed to him by President Bush, will feature high on his foreign policy agenda, as its perpetuation risks destabilising entire Europe – a key US ally.  
• Examination of Obama’s political testimony shows that there are no reasons why he should not see eye-to-eye with Russian leaders, especially since both countries’ interests strongly overlap.  
• We argue that, if presented with undistorted facts, President Obama will override the counsel of his hard-line advisers.  
• With both countries facing severe economic crisis, the US and Russian leaders will adopt a strictly pragmatic stance. 
• The cold war against Russia will likely be brought to an end during Obama’s first term.  

To view the full analysis  Download Obama_Russia_17_01_2008

Kremlin Rules - Nationalism of Putin's Era Veils Sins of Stalin's

by Clifford Levy, New York Times, November 27, 2008

RMW Analysis by Russia: Other Points of View

Interesting how articles featuring the worst chapters of Russia’s history are dredged up over and over again as front page news – how long has it been since we saw China’s Great Leap Forward treated as today’s news? This time the New York Times has published an article expressing incredulity that Russians are less obsessed with Communist crimes committed against them in the Soviet era.  Omitted is the fact that especially crimes of the Stalin era, were covered as daily fare in late Soviet and early Russian media throughout the 1990s.  Now Russians are simply weary of it. 

The regime nevertheless continues to bring Stalinism issues and communist crimes before the people. Western media have rehearsed the ‘Russians love Stalin’ theme during the last few years. The Wall Street Journal recently published a public opinion poll that saw Stalin winning the popularity contest.* It never followed up to inform readers that Stalin never won the poll; Russia’s famed Alexander Nevskii did.  Mainstream media also ignore that the limited positive attitude towards Stalin has its roots in his leadership during the USSR’s highly celebrated victory over Nazi Germany. Another example of distorting history is the famine of the early 1930s, which is usually presented as an effort by Stalin to commit genocide against ethnic Ukrainians. The famine devastated many regions and ethnic groups in the USSR, including Russia.  Mainstream media persist in distorting both history and current information regarding Russia.

 * Russia Media Watch review of the article by Andrew Osborn, “Russians Vote, but What if Stalin Wins TV-Run Popularity Contest?”, The Wall Street Journal, June 13, 2008, can be found at Russia Other Points of View

To view the full analysis, please click here Download NYT_Levy_27_Nov_08