Russia: Other Points of View

Ukraine Late for NATO

reprinted from Kommersant.com, November 26, 2008

The first U.S. official acknowledges that Ukraine won't get MAP at the summit of NATO foreign ministers slated for December 2 and 3, 2008.

Russian Federation Weekly SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Term limits. The Duma has approved the Constitutional amendments on term increases for itself and the President. When two-thirds of the regional legislatures approve (and not much doubt that they will) the new rules will take effect at the next election cycle. A reminder, for those who are still obsessed with the idea that Putin wants to be President forever, of how easy it would have been for Putin to have abolished or modified Art 81.3 had he wanted to.

The NATO Watershed

Response to Leon Aron’s “The Georgian Watershed,” American Enterprise Institute, November 12, 2008

by Gordon Hahn

In a recent article “The Georgia Watershed” Leon Aron, a Russia analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, offered ideas on the considerable downside of current Russian politics, both foreign and domestic.  Like the bulk of “expert opinion” on Russia in mainstream media and Washington’s think tanks, the article ignores both the American role in the downturn and some important positive trends.  A focus on the latter would have avoided the pitfall of unfairly apportioning blame for tensions to Russia alone.

Gates’ Message to Moscow: ‘NATO Marches Forward, Like it or Not’

by Gordon Hahn

During US Defense Secretary Robert Gates November 12 trip to Estonia, he made clear that the U.S. will pursue its policy of NATO expansion without Russia.  He also defended U.S. plans to install an anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system in Poland and the Czech Republic.  Washington, under the Bush administration, has unilaterally pushed this plan – despite Russian opposition driven by fear that the first installation of interceptors easily can be expanded to constitute a threat to Russia’s nuclear deterrent.  These two policies, combined with NATO forces in Afghanistan, Western coalition forces in Iraq, and military bases in Central Asia, create a rather dire correlation of power from Moscow’s standpoint.  Georgia, one of the West’s closest allies on Russia’s border, complicated the situation by attacking and killing Russian troops in South Ossetia in August.  None of Secretary Gates’ arguments will assuage Moscow’s legitimate and growing security concerns. 

Russia Week: Another Shot at a Rally

by Chris Weafer

Hopes are high that the late bounce in US markets on Friday will extend to a global markets rally this week. The US President-elect’s choice of Treasure secretary, the promise of a major economic stimulus early next year plus the weekend bailout of Citigroup have boosted hopes. Market activity will slow from Wednesday due to the US Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

To access the full note, including  share performance tables, please click here Download Weekly_Nov_24_08

Message from Moscow

by Mikhail Fishman, Newsweek International, November 2008

RMW Analysis by Russia: Other Points of View

This article is a classic case of looking at – or using foreign relations with Russia for domestic political purposes. The purpose is to denigrate the Bush administration rather than elucidate the vital interests America has regarding its relations with Russia. It also takes up how to deal with a less-than-democratic Russia, which is alienated from the West in large part by U.S. foreign policy mistakes – in both the Clinton and Bush administrations.

To view the full version, please click here Download NewsweekInternational_Fishman_Nov2008

Russian Federation Weekly SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong 

Politkovskaya trial. Indictments were handed down and, having first agreed to have the trial open, the judge closed it at the request of the jury. Given that the prosecution’s contention is that she was murdered in a mob hit, that both the actual killer and the boss who ordered it are in Europe and that the plot was assisted by members of the security forces, I can’t blame them for feeling insecure. However, one juror, who has resigned, said the jury only objected to live video and TV. The trial has been recessed until 1 December.

A Busted Flush?

by Chris Weafer

US auto sector holds the key. Today is World Toilet Day (seriously –  google it). Perhaps appropriately, as, even after months of battering,  global markets could still go down sharply from here over the short term.  The US equity markets again hold the key today and how investors there  react to the escalation of efforts by the US auto sector for a bailout  will probably determine that. The S&P 500 Index spent most of yesterday trading below the critical 850 level and only just about managed to scramble back to a closing 859 with a last gasp effort. A close below the 850 mark will spark some more forced selling while technical analysis points to the next strong support only at 600, or 30% lower. The price of  crude may be more volatile today and tomorrow as the WTI December settlement contract expires. In the past, the expiry of contracts has resulted in a temporary boost to prices as traders close short positions. The big US economic numbers today will be the October CPI report (core of  +0.1% expected) and the October housing starts (+780,000 expected). Meantime, selling pressure from hedge funds and some long only funds continues as investors prepare their "books" for year-end and build some extra cash in case redemptions increase in December or at the start of  January.

Georgia's Shameful Attack on South Ossetia

by Lira Tskhovrebova

Recent reports raise doubts about the Georgian president's account of the war, yet western nations are still providing aid to his government.

Misquoting Putin

Patrick Armstrong responds to "Three Steps to Stop Putin . . . Before It Is Too Late" by John Bolton

In another  part of this blog, John Bolton’s philippic on Russia is referred to and critiqued. There is one more significant error to be reported.