Dispatches From The Edge: Playing Chess in the Caucasus

by Conn Hallinan

The tale of what the Bush administration is up to in the Caucasus is slowly filtering out, although the U.S. media has largely deep-sixed the story. The recent Georgia-Russia war was just one move in a complex chess game aimed at cornering the energy reserves of Central Asia, extending the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to Moscow's vulnerable southern border, and ending Russia's control of the Black Sea. Georgia was just a pawn-an expendable one at that-in a high stakes game.

While the White House and some in the European Union (EU) represent the recent war as one between an increasingly powerful Russia reasserting itself in its former empire versus a small, democratic nation trying to recover two of its former provinces, that story is fraying a bit. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was recently condemned by the EU's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights for undemocratic practices, and a recent NATO analysis of the war supports the Russian charge that Tbilisi started the whole affair. The maneuvers that led to the war, however, have gone largely unreported.

Shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States moved into Kazakhstan, Central Asia's richest energy producer. U.S. oil companies, including Chevron, showed up in an effort to pry Kazakhstan away from its leading partners, China and Russia. Kazakh President Nurusultan Nazabayev was wined and dined, campaigning to get his country to send its oil through the trans-Caucasus Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, thus bypassing Russia and putting China's energy jugular in Western hands.

The United States put a full-court press on oil-rich Azerbaijan as well.

Georgia was on the chess board because the BTC runs thorough that country's south. The United States cemented control over the pipeline by helping to sponsor the "Rose Revolution" that brought Saakashvili to power in 2003.

But there was more than oil at stake in all this.

Starting almost a decade ago, the United States began pressuring fellow NATO member Turkey to modify or abrogate a rather obscure treaty called the Montreux Convention, a 1936 agreement that gives Turkey the right to restrict the passage of warships through the Bosporus Straits and the Dardanelles. The Convention has allowed Turkey and Russia to control the Black Sea and to prevent any foreign power from establishing a major presence there.

The United States, which was not a party to the original treaty, has pressed Turkey to let it turn the Black Sea into a NATO lake. Turkey is a NATO member, as are Bulgaria and Rumania. The United States already has military bases in Romania. If the Bush administration had succeeded in bringing the Ukraine and Georgia into the Alliance, NATO would have checkmated the Russian fleet at Sevastopol, restricting its access to the Mediterranean and isolating it from the Middle East.

However, the Americans play a lousy game of chess, particularly if some of the pieces on its side of the board have different agendas.

Take Turkey, for instance.

Ankara has not only shown no inclination to dump the Montraux Convention, it has proposed a "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Pact" that would sideline NATO in favor of a settlement by regional powers. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan presented the proposal to Moscow shortly after the war.

"The chief value in the Turkish initiative," said Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov, is that it is "common sense" and assumes that "countries belonging to the region themselves should decide how to conduct affairs there."

Lavrov went on to add two other "regional" issues that could be dealt with using a similar framework: Iraq and Iran.

That the Turkish proposal caught the Americans by surprise is an indication of how the United States failed to understand how complex the game of chess is in that region of the world. Turkey is indeed a member of NATO, but it also has its own national interests to consider.

While Turkish trade with Georgia is $1 billion a year, it's almost $40 billion with Russia. Turkey also gets 70 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Turkey and Russia have long dominated the Black Sea, and both see it as central to their economic and security interests. If the United States moves large numbers of warships into the area, it won't just be the Russians who lose control of that body of water.

Neither are the Turks eager to modify international treaties like the Montreux Convention. Doing so, writes M.K. Bhadrakumar, a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service and a former ambassador in the region, "would open a Pandora's Box. It might well turn out to be a step towards reopening the Lausanne Treaty of 1923, the cornerstone which erected the modern Turkish state out of the debris of the Ottoman Empire."

According to Bhadrakumar, the U.S. plan was to bring Kazakhstan into NATO as well. The Kazakh-Russian border is the longest land border shared by any two nations in the world. "It would be a nightmare for Russian security if NATO were to gain a foothold in Kazakhstan," he says.

In short, what the United States is up to is the 21st century's version of the "Great Game," the competition that pitted 19th century imperial powers against one another in a bid to control Central Asia and the Middle East.

The move to surround Russia and hinder China's access to energy is part of the Bush administration's 2002 "West Point Doctrine," a strategic posture aimed at preventing the rise of any economic or military competitors.

When Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently said that Russia was facing international isolation over the Georgia war, she was whistling past the graveyard. Rather than being isolated, the Russians have been lining up allies among the very states the United States had hoped would join it in ringing the Russians with newly recruited NATO allies.

During the recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Tajikistan capital of Dushanbe, Kazakh President Nurusultan Nazarbayev assured the Russians they could rely on Kazakhstan for support. "I am amazed that the West simply ignored the fact that Georgian armed forces attacked the peaceful city of Tskhinvali," said Nazarbayev, "Kazakhstan understands all the measures that have been taken [by Russia] and supports them."

The SCO is made up if Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

Azerbaijan, another major target for the United States, has kept quiet on the Georgian War, but announced that it was reducing the amount of oil and gas it was shipping through the BTC pipelines and increasing its shipments through Russia and Iran. "We knew there was a risk of political turmoil in Georgia, but we did not expect war," Elhar Nasirov, vice-president of Azerbaijan's state oil company, Socar, told the Financial Times. "It's not a good idea to have all your eggs in one basket, especially when that basket is so fragile."

If both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan balk at using the BTC, it could not only derail U.S. strategy in the region, but the pipeline itself.

While NATO has tried to put up a united front on Georgia, the Alliance is deeply split between the United States, Britain, Poland and the Baltic States on one side, and France, Germany, Italy, and Spain on the other. In part, the reluctance of the latter group to join Washington's crusade against Moscow is based on self-interest. Russia is an important trading partner and provides Europe with much of its energy.

But a number of European countries are also having serious doubts about Georgia's leader. According to Der Spiegel, NATO intelligence sources back the Russian account of the war, not Georgia's. "Five weeks after the war in the Caucasus the mood is shifting against Georgian President Saakashvilli," the newspaper wrote on Sept. 15.

This shift in sentiment has even been voiced in the U.S. Congress, although it has yet to be reported in any major U.S. media. Addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee Sept. 9, Senator Hillary Clinton said it was not "smart" to isolate Russia over the war and pointedly asked, "Did we embolden the Georgians in any way?" Clinton called for a commission to look into the origins of the war, echoing a similar call by Europe's foreign ministers meeting in the French city of Avignon.

At a meeting of the EU's inter-governmental commission in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said it was important to "strengthen the partnership between the European Union and Russia, and France and Russia."

While a Harris Poll shows that some Europeans are now "more concerned" with Russia than they were before the war, the same poll shows the United States is still considered a far more serious "threat to global stability." The poll also indicates overwhelming opposition in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Britain to increasing military spending in the aftermath of the Georgian war. Indeed, any government that presses for a more aggressive posture toward Russia, or knuckes under to Washington's pressure to increase military spending, is likely to find itself out of power.

The Georgian war, like the Iraq war, were disasters brought on by a combination of imperial arrogance and fundamental cluelessness. The United States now finds itself locked into a military stalemate in Iraq and Afghanistan, increasingly isolated in the Middle East and Central Asia, and enmeshed in one of the greatest financial meltdowns in its history.

Check.

This is how empires end.

Conn Hallinan is an Analyst for Foreign Policy in Focus

Comments

[Aaron]

Thanks for the informative article.

Some in the US also understand the last line of the article and see it coming. The media are holding out on advertising these forecasts.

[Derek C]

Don't believe the media. Nobody in the USA wants the war to continue. Everybody with a brain knows that Bush entered under false pretenses, although it was still an unjust war from the beginning. Everybody knows that the 9/11 attacks were "blowback," which is a CIA term describing vengeance against the US as a result of our imperial ambitions.

We, as Americans, do not want troops in the Middle East, Europe, Asia...anywhere. They are far too stretched out to possibly defend us. We want our empire to end, but sadly, because of the recent actions by our government, it will not end until the currency is destroyed.

Hyperinflation is right around the corner. America was founded under the idea of personal and economic freedom from oppressive government, but our one-party system seems to have forgotten it. Our founders spoke of commerce and friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none. We want our empire to end, but we fear that we will soon lose our wealth and liberty, as well.

[Courtney]

We have a seriously corrupted government on our hands. More of us Americans have been taking part in a lot of grassroots efforts to educate and motivate on issues such as the American Empire and eroding economy and our ever-increasing national debt. I can definitely say that it's a hard road though -- I've lost some of my friends because of my analysis of our situation (I'm a Ron Paul supporter).

Very nice article by the way and informative. Thanks!

[Chuck]

I am yet another American who still can't put my head around the Bush administration' ideas of ruling the world. I do not want our troops spread around the world like they are. Every foreign nation who has a US Military base should be telling the US government to pack up and get out! You know the US government wouldn't allow China, Russia or any other nation set up a military base on ANY North American land, why should they be able to set up shop where ever they want?

Every person in any foreign nation has every right to be pissed at the US government, but keep in mind, the citizens are fighting this battle side by side with you. Most of us do not want to take over your land. Fight for what is rightfully yours and we'll do what we can to protest any war or invasion of any country.

May God bless us all.

[Mary]

Anyone think its interesting that China held Bush in Air Force One on the ground in China while Russia attacked Georgia?

Press Corps Endures International Incident
By Michael Abramowitz

BEIJING, Aug. 8--A three-hour standoff between the White House and Chinese authorities was resolved satisfactorily this morning without international incident.

Did the dustup have anything to do with matters of state, such as a downed spy plane or an imprisoned dissident? Alas, the subject was a bit more mundane: the rules under which the White House press corps would be allowed to enter China.

The situation unfolded in the wee hours of the morning here, when the press charter carrying reporters covering President Bush's trip to Asia arrived at the Beijing airport after a five-hour flight from Bangkok.

On most presidential travel abroad, the charter is met on the tarmac by buses that pick up reporters and take them directly to their hotel and filing center, without going through normal customs and airport procedures. That's the arrangement the White House usually negotiates with host countries--and it's the arrangment the White House believed it had negotiated with the Chinese.

But when the charter arrived a little after 2 am this morning, the control tower directed the pilots to the regular terminal, where the authorities were apparently planning to treat the travelers like normal tourists. The White House balked at this plan on the grounds that it was not what had been previously agreed to.

White House officials said they had a number of concerns but apparently uppermost was the prospect that the Chinese could rummage through reporters' belongings on their way into the country.

The standoff lasted about three hours: reporters and White House staff remained on the plane as U.S. Embassy officials negotiated a way out of the impasse. On board the charter, nervous network correspondents began tracking tape, worried that they might miss planned appearances on the nightly news shows.

Finally a resolution was reached a little after 5 am. Reporters filed individually through passport control but there was no searching of their bags and gear.

Explaining the situation was White House spokesman Scott Stanzel, one of several press aides on the plane. "There was a difference of opinion over how the White House press corps would proceed from the airport to the hotel. We worked with our hosts to make arrangements that were agreeable to both parties."

Ah, diplomacy!

By washingtonpost.com Editor | August 7, 2008; 10:23 PM ET
Previous: Focus Turns to China's Role in Sudan | Next: Bush's Beach Volleyball Pat
over a breakaway region intensified and moved into the Georgian capital.

A warplane drops bombs near the Georgian city of Gori on Friday as Russian and Georgian forces battle.

1 of 3 Government buildings, including the Parliament, were evacuated when the bombs fell.

Heavy casualties have reported on both sides since Russian forces moved Friday into South Ossetia, a pro-Russian autonomous region of Georgia.

Russian bombers were targeting Georgia's economic infrastructure, National Security Council secretary Alexander Lomaia said, including the country's largest Black Sea port, Poti, and the main road connecting the southern part of Georgia with the east and the airport.

Georgian television reported that the port had been destroyed.

Georgia, a former Soviet state, sent troops into South Ossetia on Thursday, aiming to crack down on the separatists, who want independence or unification with North Ossetia, which is in Russia. Russia responded Friday, sending troops into the Georgian province where it had peacekeepers stationed.

"I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars," Lyudmila Ostayeva, a resident of the South Ossetia capital, Tskhinvali, told The Associated Press on Friday.

"It's impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged," she said after fleeing to a village near the Russian border, AP reported.

"They are killing civilians, women and children, with heavy artillery and rockets," Sarmat Laliyev, 28, told AP.

One U.S. State Department official called the conflict a "very dangerous situation" and said diplomatic moves are afoot around the globe to stop it.

Georgia -- on the Black Sea coast between Russia and Turkey -- appealed for diplomatic intervention. Watch Georgian minister describe fighting in South Ossetia »

Georgia asked the United States for planes to bring back its 2,000 troops serving as part of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, a U.S. official said.

"All day today, they've been bombing Georgia from numerous warplanes and specifically targeting [the] civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among [the] civilian population all around the country," Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvili, said Friday. "This is the worst nightmare one can encounter." Watch the interview with Saakashvili »

Russia's ambassador to United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, put the blame on the Tbilisi government.

"What is going on is a massive bombardment of residential quarters in Tshkinvali and other towns, too," Churkin said.

Eduard Kokoity, head of the rebel government in South Ossetia, said that 1,400 people were killed in the province, according to Russia's Interfax news agency.

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Hundreds of people, possibly thousands, are fleeing South Ossetia to the Russian region of North Ossetia-Alania, the United Nations reported Friday, citing Russian officials.

About 150 Russian armored vehicles have entered South Ossetia, Saakashvili said, and Georgian forces had shot down two Russian aircraft. Watch the Russian tanks moving into the area »

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, quoted by Interfax, said Russians had died because of Georgian military operations in South Ossetia.

Russia "will not allow the deaths of our compatriots to go unpunished," and "those guilty will receive due punishment," he said. "My duty as Russian president is to safeguard the lives and dignity of Russian citizens, wherever they are. This is what is behind the logic of the steps we are undertaking now."

South Ossetia, with a population of about 70,000, declared independence from Georgia in the early 1990s, but it was not internationally recognized. Many ethnic Ossetians feel close to Russia and have Russian passports and use its currency. iReport.com: Are you there? Share your photos, videos

Interfax quoted the Georgian Foreign Ministry as saying that strikes by Russian aircraft killed and wounded personnel at a Georgian air base and that Russian planes have been bombing Georgian territory throughout the day. Georgian officials also report four Russian aircraft shot down.

The U.S., NATO and the European Union have all called for an end to the fighting. President Bush and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin discussed the conflict Friday, the White House confirmed.

By early evening Friday, a Georgian Cabinet minister said the country's forces have taken control of Tskhinvali, Interfax reported.

The Novosti news agency, citing the South Ossetian government, said Georgian tanks and infantry attacked Tskhinvali, and "a large part of the city has been destroyed. Over 15 civilians have been killed, several buildings are on fire in the city center, and the local parliament building has burned down."

But Russian and South Ossetian officials said Russia was making inroads in fighting Georgian forces.

"Street fighting in Tskhinvali has lasted for many hours. Ossetian home guards are using grenade-launchers to destroy Georgian tanks. Eyewitnesses say tanks are burning throughout the city. The turning point is approaching in the battle for the capital city," said the Web site of the South Ossetian Information and Press Committee.

The committee also said Russian armored vehicles have entered the northern suburb of the city.

Violence has been mounting in the region in recent days, with sporadic clashes between Georgian forces and South Ossetian separatists.

Georgian troops launched attacks in South Ossetia late Thursday after a top government official said a unilateral cease-fire offer was met with separatist artillery fire.

Lomaia said Georgian troops responded proportionately to separatist mortar and artillery attacks on two villages, attacks he said followed the cease-fire and Saakashvili's call for negotiations.

Russian peacekeepers are in South Ossetia under a 1992 agreement by Russian, Georgian and South Ossetian authorities to maintain what has been a fragile peace. The mixed peacekeeping force also includes Georgian and South Ossetian troops.
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Journalist Elene Gotsadze contributed to this report.

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