Conspiracy Theories

by Patrick Armstrong, August 20, 2008

There are two theories making the rounds about the South Ossetia crisis.

One I will term the "American conspiracy". This argues that Georgia would never have made its military moves on Thursday and Friday without Washington's approval/connivance/planning and that the purpose was either 1) that Tbilisi would quickly secure South Ossetia and later Abkhazia, thereby establishing its control over its rebellious provinces (a condition of NATO membership) or 2) fail to do so in the face of Russian opposition. Thus, Georgia's entry into NATO would be assured.

The other theory I will term the "Russian conspiracy". This would argue that Moscow provoked Georgia into attacking South Ossetia on Thursday night so that it could defeat the Georgian army, humiliate Tbilisi and force President Saakashvili's ouster. Thus, Georgia's entry into NATO would be prevented.

First, I would observe that each of these conspiracy theories takes for granted that the casus belli was Georgia's entry into NATO. This is ironic because, since the very first mention of it, we have been continually assured that NATO expansion is a mechanism to ensure peace and stability in Europe.

All conspiracy theories, whether they be "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion", the Kennedy assassination, the "911 Truthers" or anything else, have a fundamental logical problem. They all assume that there is only one actor and that the rest of us are either puppets or dupes of their plots, kept in complete ignorance of who is "behind the curtain pulling the strings". But, the actual reality is that we are all actors, of varying power to be sure, but each with will and intention. Reality is, in truth, much more complicated, and messy, than a tiny cabal of puppet masters invisibly controlling millions of unwitting and passive puppets.

Therefore, it is interesting to make the observation that each of these conspiracy theories assumes that President Saakashvili of Georgia was either a puppet ("American conspiracy") or a hapless dupe ("Russian conspiracy"). Each dismisses the possibility that he, Washington and Moscow were all actors, each with its own intentions and that what happened in the last week was the collision of all three.

Personally, I believe that both the "American conspiracy" and the "Russian conspiracy" have fatal factual flaws (apart from the ahistorical and illogical sole actor assumption) that make either impossible to believe for people who carefully examine the whole tangled historical origins of the crisis, back to the early 1990s and then to the 1920s.

Ottawa, Canada

Comments

[Eric Kraus]

Patrick,
I agree with you on most conspiracy theories. The majority of wars are stumbled into, not planned - but there are exceptions.
You leave one vital question unaddressed. Saakashvili may be wild and irresponsible, but there is no evidence of psychosis. WHAT then could have convinced him that Russia would look on passively as Georgia shelled So. Ossetia, killing Russian civilians and trooops?
Assuming he did not think that Moscow would shrink from confronting the mighty Georgian army, he must have thought he had assurances that someone was going to pull his chestnuts out of the fire. WHERE did he find such assurances?
Countries are not unitary entities, and it seems most likely that "The United States" did not mislead him. That does not means that certain factions with in the United States Capitol were not well served by the events. If Saakashvili wished to believe something, then they were perhaps all to ready to oblige - without this being the official policy of the US administration. Think Cheney - think McCain.

[Patrick Armstrong]

My assessment is that the Georgian plan, if indeed there was one, was quite "doable". Please see my entry at http://www.russiablog.org/2008/08/could_the_georgians_have_done.php#more.
In essence. I believe, after looking at Google Earth, that, had the Georgian forces got about 25 kms from the border, they could have established a strong blocking position.
I personally do not/not believe that Washington gave Saakashvili the go-ahead, but I do think that he thought it had.